In an increasingly young league, the days of extended, multi-year development cycles are long gone. Teams are aggressively bringing young players into the lineup – if not because they’re friendlier to salary cap rules, then because they’re the ones who generally drive the performance bus. But there’s clearly a limit to how aggressive franchises are willing to go with young talent. Despite the average squad age falling off the cliff in recent years, teams are still wary of putting younger players in regular lineups. Sometimes this is about physical growth. Other times, it’s about ensuring players succeed against professional competition at lower levels first. Every now and then you find a player so uniquely talented and developed – think Edmonton’s Connor McDavid or Florida’s Aaron Ekblad – that the decision is easy. But this is not the case in most cases. Consider the frequency with which first-year draft picks have entered the NHL over the past 15 years. Not only is the trend line flat, but it also shows how difficult the immediate jump is for teenage beginners. During a draft with more than 220 players selected, only about five will see direct NHL action. Despite the league-wide revolution in finding and dressing young talent, this has been a consistent red line:
Last season, only six skaters selected in the 2021 draft had so much as a cup of coffee at the NHL level. Columbus forward Cole Sillinger cemented a full-time roster spot, along with five other skaters – San Jose’s William Eklund, Buffalo’s Owen Power, Seattle’s Matty Beniers, Anaheim’s Mason McTavish and Kent Johnson of Columbus – see very limited action. Or, put another way, a player from last year’s draft immediately jumped to the NHL team. The number of players who became full-time regulars in the last 15 years is quite a bit smaller, and almost all of those players come from the first round. Of the 59 players (2007-22) who saw more than 20 games of action in their first available season, only one – Ryan O’Reilly in 2009-10 with the Colorado Avalanche – went outside of the first round. A better way to visualize this group of 59 players is the slots in which they were drafted. Teams are pretty good at spotting NHL-ready talent, and those players are largely taken early in the first round. So if you’re a fan of a team that drafts early, you might have an outside chance of seeing that draft pick in an NHL lineup next season. But absent that very small group of players, prospects likely head elsewhere to develop, and likely for many years.
At the top of the draft you find players who make the leap right away – the top eight picks alone account for 82 percent of first-year pro players over that 15-year span. Using the esteemed Bob McKenzie’s final rankings, here is the list of eligible players:
The draft offers tremendous opportunities for teams looking for future roster improvement, and the transition time for many of these players has decreased over the years. But if you’re looking for an immediate injection of talent, it’s extremely rare to find that type of player outside of the top eight picks. Patience will be a virtue. Enjoy the draft! Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference
