New York is combining the addition of the record deal for defending AL MVP Aaron Judge as part of a huge offseason. The guarantee equals Brandon Nimmo’s for the sixth-largest deal of the offseason. Rodón will end up with the second-longest guarantee among free agent pitchers, just behind the five-year, $185 contract Jacob deGrom signed with the Rangers. It’s the culmination of an incredible two-season run. The left-hander broke into the majors eight years ago, selected by the White Sox with the third overall pick in the 2014 draft. Possessing a mid-90s fastball and a wipeout slider, he was viewed as a potential starter who would reach quickly to the big leagues. Rodón did find himself on the south side of Chicago midway through the 2015 campaign and posted a 3.90 ERA in 304 1/3 innings by the end of the following season. Unfortunately, the Miami native’s career was then sidelined by injuries. Rodón missed a chunk of the 2017 campaign with biceps bursitis and then underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in September. He did not make his debut until June of the following year, making 20 starts. At the start of the following season, Rodón was diagnosed with an elbow problem. He went under the knife again in May ’19, this time undergoing a Tommy John procedure. He missed the rest of that year, returning at the end of the 2020 campaign for four appearances. Mounting injury problems led the White Sox to decline to offer him a contract through 2021. Chicago circled back toward the end of the offseason, re-signing him to a $3 million free agent deal. That move was met with plenty of criticism, but turned into one of the best decisions of GM Rick Hahn’s tenure. Rodón was outstanding in 2021, earning his first All-Star nod with a 2.31 ERA over 89 2/3 first-half innings. He looked on his way to a Cy Young Award when he dealt with some shoulder fatigue in August. Rodón missed only a few weeks and continued to play well upon his return, though his velocity dipped toward the end of the season. The southpaw finished the year with a 2.37 ERA and a whopping 34.6% strikeout rate in 132 2/3 innings. He finished fifth in Cy Young. However, the shoulder issue at the end of the year and a drop in velocity seemed to spook Chicago’s front office. They made the disappointing decision not to issue Rodón a special offer, allowing him to hit the open market without a compensation plan attached. He remained a free agent until after the lockout, when the Giants signed him for a two-year, $44 million deal. The deal contained an opt-out clause after the first year, provided Rodón reached 110 innings in 2022. It was a chance for the hurler to make a bet on himself, knowing a nine-figure deal could be in the cards if he retained 2021 form in a full, healthy season. Rodón did just that, doubling down on perhaps the best season of his career. He stayed healthy all year, making 31 starts and pitching a career-high 178 innings. Rodón worked to a sterling 2.88 ERA. He earned a second straight All-Star nod and was among the game’s best in at-bats. Rodón struck out 33.4% of batters against a solid 7.3% walk rate. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Braves rookie Spencer Strider has surpassed that strikeout rate. Strider, Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole were the only pitchers with a larger gap between their strikeout and walk rates. Almost as important, Rodón’s arsenal showed no ill effects after going down in 2021. His fastball averaged a robust 95.5 MPH, making him one of the hardest-throwing lefties in the game. He generated high spin and whiff rates on both his fastball and slider, and opposing hitters walked on a whopping 14.1% of his total pitches. Rodón was smothering the rags from both sides of the plate. he held lefties to a .179/.257/.260 line, while platoon advantage hitters compiled just a .207/.264/.319 mark. A second season of elite performance, this one without any health scares, cemented the 30-year-old as one of the sport’s top players. His career has taken more turns than expected when he was drafted, but Rodón has developed into an elite first baseman. He made the easy decision to opt out of his deal with San Francisco after exceeding the necessary innings limit, and quickly rejected a qualifying offer. Now it looks like a potentially elite Yankee rotation. New York watched Jameson Taillon go but upgrade with the addition of Rodón. He and Cole are ace partners, supported by the explosive Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas. The latter two have had some injury concerns in recent seasons, but are over-qualified as fourth and fifth starters if healthy. Domingo Germán, Clarke Schmidt and prospect Randy Vasquez are on hand as depth options who could step in if one of the top five is injured. Rodón was one of three aces available in free agency, along with deGrom and Justin Verlander. As the youngest of this trio, he always seemed likely to secure the biggest deal. The six-year stint will be the longest for any pitcher this winter, though deGrom’s five-year deal and a stronger-than-expected middle-of-the-pack starter market have led to rumors that Rodón’s camp was looking for a seven-year deal that would top $200 MM. He falls well shy of that lofty hope, but the six-year, $162MM commitment is still pretty strong for a pitcher. It’s the first six-year commitment for a free agent player since Cole and Stephen Strasburg reached nine and seven years, respectively, during the 2019-20 offseason. Patrick Corbin ($140MM) and Yu Darvish ($120MM) are the only other open market pitchers to reach six years since the start of the 2016 campaign. Earlier this offseason, MLBTR projected Rodón to a five-year pact $140mm. The cost to New York exceeds the salary they will be owed as the deal pushes them even further into luxury tax territory. The Yankees were already ready to pay the competitive balance tax, and the addition of Rodón pushes them toward the pinnacle of punishment. The contract comes with an average annual value of $27 million, which brings New York’s CBT number to within a rounding error of $293 million, according to Roster Resource. This is the threshold for the fourth CBT tier and puts them about $60MM north of the base threshold of $233MM. New York also paid the luxury tax in 2022, so they will be subject to increased penalties as repeat payers. The Yankees will pay a tax of 30% on their first $20MM in excess ($6MM), 42% on the next $20MM ($8.4MM), 75% on the next $20MM ($15MM) and 90% on each dollar spending over $293M. Rodón’s signing pushes them firmly into the top of the third bracket, effectively around $18M in taxes. The $27 million salary will bring their total raw payroll to around $277 million, which will easily be a franchise record. Going over the third cap would also push the Yankees’ first pick in the 2024 draft down ten spots. Meanwhile, signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer will have a significant impact in the 2023 draft. New York is subject to the highest penalties as a team that paid the CBT this year. They will lose their second- and fifth-highest picks in next summer’s amateur draft, while their international bonus allocation will be reduced by $1 million. The Giants will receive compensation for Rodón’s departure. As a team that neither received revenue sharing payments nor paid the CBT this year, they will get a bonus pick between the Competitive Balance of Round B and the start of the third round (usually around 75th overall) in next year’s draft. San Francisco had seemingly prepared for Rodón’s departure from the roster by making a pair of preferred short-term additions, bringing in Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling with two-year guarantees. With Ródon off the board, Dansby Swanson is the last remaining free agent likely to land a nine-figure deal. The free agent rotation market has mostly filled in at the top, with Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Johnny Cueto, Corey Kluber and Drew Rucinski remaining as some of the top options available. Needless to say, none of this group has the kind of upside that Rodón has. It’s a bold gamble by the Yankees, one they hope will add an impact arm to their playoff rotation as they try to advance beyond the AL Championship Series for the first time since 2009. John Heyman from New York Post first reported that Rodón and the Yankees had agreed to a six-year, $162 million deal that contained a full no-trade clause. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was the first to report this particular financial analysis. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
