The success stories dominated the news cycle, played out in several video clips widely distributed on social media, showing Ukrainian drones decimating chaotic Russian advances. Ukraine’s ad-hoc drone force, from small consumer drones typically used for surveillance to Turkey’s famed Bayraktar TB2 drones, has been credited with gutting Putin’s tanks and armored vehicles. But Russia has learned from being humiliated by drones in the first months of the invasion. Experts told Insider that wonder drone weapons are becoming increasingly ineffective because Russia has improved its defense systems and is shooting down and jamming many of Ukraine’s drones. “What’s happening now is that Russia’s electronic warfare and air defenses are better organized compared to the earlier months of the war,” said Samuel Bendett, an analyst and expert on unmanned and robotic military systems at the Center for Naval Analysis. . Russian forces use early warning radars to identify drones and electronic warfare systems that jam and disrupt their communications, Bedet said. They also use various weapons, such as machine guns, and air defense systems, such as the Tor missile system, to shoot down drones. Recent footage from the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to show a Krasukha-S4 electronic warfare system in action, taking out a Ukrainian drone. According to Mark Cancian, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Ukraine was previously able to use drones so effectively because Russia had not organized its defense systems. “The drones were able to play such a role because the Russians were slow to build an air defense system. They were slow to build the combined arms operation (armor, infantry, artillery, reconnaissance, engineers, air defense) that their doctrine required. ,” he said. Ukrainian kamikaze drone hit Russian tank. Screengrab/Ukrainian Special Operations Forces Russia has better organized and positioned its ground-based air defenses in the Donbas region, where the focus of the war has shifted. Ukrainian forces are now limiting their use of drones because Russian troops intercept them more easily and losing drones can be costly. While disposable drones like the Switchblade and Phoenix Ghost cost several thousand dollars each, the TB2 drones can cost somewhere between $1-2 million each. Ukraine has received about 50 TB2 drones from the Turkish arms company Baykar since the start of the Russian invasion. Ruthlessly effective in the early days of the war, TB2s have begun to be shot down by Russia and the Ukrainian military is curtailing their use. Reports recently surfaced that the US plans to sell to Ukraine armed US-made General Atomics MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones, which have greater capabilities than the TB2s. However, two unnamed Ukrainian Air Force pilots told The War Zone that they do not support the drones because of the hefty price tag of $10 million each, as they are likely to be shot down on their first mission. According to Cancian, Russia’s air defenses are almost entirely small, and medium-range missiles and drones are particularly vulnerable because they fly low and slow. “The Ukrainian pilots I spoke to say the role of drones is now limited as a result,” he said. Instead, Ukrainian forces have argued for modern fighter jets from their Western allies. A Ukrainian soldier shoots a Russian drone with an assault rifle from a front-line trench east of Kharkiv, March 31, 2022. FADEL SENNA/AFP via Getty Images While Ukraine’s drones are becoming less effective in this new phase of the war, Russia is flying just as many if not more of its drones, especially for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions, CNA expert Bendett said. The Ukrainians don’t have the weapons to shoot them down and one soldier told the Sunday Times: “We can’t see the Russian drones, but they can see us. The only thing we can do is hide.” Bedet said the coming weeks will likely involve the Russian military looking to get better organized and continue to push forward on its offensive. “He’s trying to trap the Ukrainians in pockets around certain cities and towns and just trying to push and grind the Ukrainian defenses in general. Drones play a key role in providing intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance capability back to the Russians so they can conduct strikes from the ground and the air,” Bendett said. “So we’re going to see drones on the Russian side, assuming probably even more important down the line, assuming the war continues as it is now.”
