BA.5, a sub-variant of the Omicron family that has a modified version of the virus’s infamous ‘spike’ protein, will soon become the dominant strain of the virus in the US, meaning “its behavior will determine our fate for over the next few months until it either burns out infecting so many people or is replaced by a variant that is even better at infecting people,” Wachter wrote.
“The scenario is not pleasant either,” he added.
The number of new daily COVID cases has increased nationally and has declined significantly since January. The same is true for the number of COVID hospitalizations at UCSF Health System, Watchter said. However, the true spread of COVID is harder to know these days because so many people are testing themselves with kits at home.
And BA.5 could cause a continued plateau, or even a new wave of infections and possibly hospitalizations, because it infects more easily and is also better at evading immune responses — even in vaccinated people, Wachter wrote.
While he stressed that vaccines and boosters “remain extremely valuable in preventing a severe case” that can lead to hospitalization or death, the increased slipperiness of BA.5 means that existing vaccines will likely be less effective in preventing or stopping the transmission of COVID cases in the first place. Also, he wrote, previous infection with a different variant “no longer confers robust protection against reinfection” with BA.5.
So what is a man to do?
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Wachter said it depends on how much you want to avoid contracting COVID. Personally, he said, he doesn’t want to risk contracting “Long COVID” and the debilitating symptoms that come with it, “So I’m still avoiding eating indoors and I’ll continue to wear an N95 in crowded indoor spaces until the cases subside. ” Others may make different choices.
As for governments, he said, if BA.5 causes hospitalizations to rise, “particularly if we also have staff shortages,” a return to mask mandates “would be the right call.” But Wachter acknowledged that there would likely be stiff resistance to the new mask-wearing requirements, especially outside blue states, regardless of the risk.
“Most people have lost their masks,” he wrote.
Jason Fagone (he/she) is a staff writer for the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: [email protected] Twitter: @jfagone
