The Conservative Party barred Brown from the race, citing allegations he broke funding rules. Brown denies the allegations and his campaign says it is appealing the decision. If the blockade stands, Poilievre will have a clear shot at the Conservative leadership, Conservative strategist Kory Teneycke said. “I think his chances of winning have gone from 98 percent to 100 percent,” Teneycke, a partner at Rubicon Strategy, told host Vassy Kapelos on CBC’s Power & Politics. WATCH: Patrick Brown blames impeachment on conservative establishment
Patrick Brown blames the ouster on the conservative establishment
Conservative leadership candidate Patrick Brown says he has been ostracized by the party establishment. Political pundits Eric Grenier and Kory Teneycke join Vassy Kapelos to react to his removal and predict where the race will go from here. Teneycke pointed to the Poilievre campaign’s claim to have registered more than 300,000 of the 675,000 members the party says will be eligible to vote. The party says the preliminary membership list it released to campaigns last week shows around 675,000 members are now eligible to vote for the next Conservative leader. “He puts the fight very hard [Poilievre’s] favor in terms of odds,” Teneycke said. Conservative strategist Shakir Chambers, principal at Earnscliffe Strategies, said that while Brown’s disqualification gives Poilievre an easier path to victory, Charest could prevail if he courted Brown’s supporters. Brown said he has recruited 150,000 new members to the party. Chambers said those votes could put Charest over the top. “It creates a path for [Charest] to strengthen his camp, to strengthen his subscriptions. And if he can get to the second, third ballot, he has a much better chance of winning,” he said. But Eric Grenier, a writer and editor at The Writ, said the scenario will likely depend on how many of Brown’s supporters still vote. “Not all of these people are going to just go home and not vote because their candidate was disqualified. A lot of them are going to end up voting,” Grenier told Capello. “Some of them will go to Jean Charest, but probably the 150,000 people that Patrick Brown signed up will vote in smaller numbers than the people who signed up for other campaigns.” If a significant number of Brown’s supporters tune in, that could give Pouliev another advantage, Grenier said.
Polievre, Charest both claim paths to victory
Both Poilievre and Charest claim they have paths to victory based on the preliminary membership list and that Brown’s disqualification does not change their calculations. Organizing Committee for Party Leadership Elections [LEOC] it did not break down member numbers by region or indicate how many members each campaign has signed up for. But the Poilievre and Charest campaigns say they’ve signed up enough members in enough ridings to win. The rules of the Conservative leadership race award 100 points to each of Canada’s 338 ridings. These points are allocated to candidates based on their share of the vote in each riding. A candidate must win a majority of points to secure leadership. Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre, right, walks past Jean Charest as he takes his place on stage during a debate at the Canada Strong and Free Network conference in Ottawa on May 5, 2022. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian press) Poilievre and his campaign have said they have signed up more than 300,000 members. But in a message to supporters obtained by CBC, Charest’s campaign says 450,000 party members are in fewer than 100 ridings. “After a detailed review of the preliminary membership list, we are confident that we have a very strong voting performance to secure the points we need to win the leadership race,” the message reads. Charest’s campaign also claims the former Quebec premier has secured 80 percent of the points in 78 ridings in his home province. Poilievre’s campaign rejects the idea that support for their candidate is concentrated in a small number of ridings. The Conservative MP’s group says it has signed up at least 100 members in every riding across the country. Poilievre’s campaign sent the CBC a regional breakdown of his support — he claims he has more than 25,000 votes in Quebec, 118,000 in Ontario and 71,000 in Alberta. Those numbers don’t include those who may have been removed from the preliminary list by the organizing committee, but the party says only about 6,500 names have been removed from the list for not following party or Elections Canada rules. “If Mr. Charest is so confident, we urge him to release his numbers like we have and make clear his path to victory,” Poilievre’s press secretary and campaign spokesman Anthony Koch said in a text message.
Campaigns can use the preliminary list to shop for votes
Just because a campaign signed up a certain number of members doesn’t guarantee those members will still vote in the fall — and those who do can vote for another candidate. By releasing the preliminary list, the party is now allowing all campaigns to call or email party members in hopes of persuading them to switch sides. Ontario MP and leadership candidate Scott Aitchison’s campaign team said it plans to launch a tour this summer to win over supporters. “[Aitchison] will continue to work to build a Conservative Party that can deliver the results and good governance that Justin Trudeau is unable or unwilling to deliver,” a statement from his campaign said. The campaign for former Ontario MPP Roman Baber said it is “optimistic” about the membership lineup. “There is no doubt that our message of democracy has had a material impact on all campaigns and the race as a whole,” Baber’s campaign said in a media statement. The campaign of Ontario MP Leslyn Lewis also says she has a path to victory, though she did not release her own membership numbers. “We strongly believe there continues to be a path to victory for Leslyn in this race, and we will continue to work toward that goal,” Lewis campaign manager Steve Outhouse said in a media statement.
