This shift in Russian forces’ approach to the fighting in eastern Ukraine could be the first signs of a brand new—and troubling—phase in Russia’s devastating war in Ukraine. While Ukrainian officials initially denied they had lost Lysychansk, one of the last strongholds in eastern Ukraine’s Luhansk, Ukrainian forces confirmed on Sunday that they had withdrawn from the area. Russian forces took over on Sunday and Russian President Vladimir Putin declared victory on Monday. Russia’s success in Luhansk was no accident. While Russian forces have been bogged down by past mistakes in the war for months, Russian forces are improving at executing their war plans and operating between teams. Putin has likely achieved effective coordination between two major warring groups in Donbass, according to the intelligence assessment. “Unlike previous phases of the war, Russia has probably achieved reasonably effective coordination between at least two Force Groups, the Central Group probably commanded by General Alexander Lapin and the Southern Group possibly under the newly appointed General Sergei Surovykin.” evaluations. This is a world of difference from the previous four months of the war, during which Russian forces have been poorly coordinated, faltered in their logistics and planning, and actively sought to sabotage their own attack plans instead of fighting like well-oiled ones. machine. It’s a particularly worrying development given that Russia likely won’t stop at Luhansk. The current U.S. assessment is that Russia still maintains plans to seize all of Ukraine, not just the territories of eastern Ukraine, a U.S. ambassador told The Daily Beast. And in the coming days, Russian forces could turn their attention to other territories in eastern Ukraine, including neighboring Donetsk. Putin urged Russian forces to continue in the region “as happened in Luhansk” and said they “must carry out their duties according to previously approved plans”. Already, Russian forces are concentrating on Shiversk, Fedorivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. In recent days, Russian forces have also focused attacks on several cities and regions shelling the Donetsk region, as well as Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Chernihiv and Khmelnytskyi regions, according to regional military commands. . “He hurts a lot, but he doesn’t lose the war.” “In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy bombarded our troops with mortars, barrels and rocket artillery in the areas of Kodema, Pokrovske, Zaytseve, Zalizne and Novoselivka settlements,” the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said on Tuesday. That doesn’t mean Russia will cruise to victory, however, according to Michael Coffman, research program director of the Russia Studies Program at CNA, a national security think tank. “This is a critical moment for the Ukrainian military, because these are the few months when they are very low on ammunition, they are trying to switch to Western systems. They don’t have a lot of them yet, or they’re not fully developed and they’re still learning about them,” Kofman told The Daily Beast. “This current phase is mostly about survival for Ukraine and trying to take back as much ground as they can on the battlefield. What people haven’t really seen is what Ukraine could do with a somewhat recapitalized military and the benefit of Western weapons.” And although Russia could be on the verge of taking even more of Donbass, victory in Luhansk could serve a purpose in itself that has nothing to do with seizing more territory: Putin now has a message that he can to blast domestically for successes in the so-called “special military operation” it claimed Russia was undertaking to help eastern Ukraine, including Luhansk. “Russia’s relatively quick capture of Lysychansk extends its control over almost the entire territory of Luhansk Oblast, allowing it to claim substantial progress toward the policy goal it presented as the immediate war goal, namely the ‘liberation’ of Donbass,” the UK. the defense ministry said on Tuesday. Already, Putin has met with the military leadership to celebrate a “great victory” and awarded Major General Esedulla Abachev and Colonel General Alexander Lapin with “Hero of Russia” awards for the capture of Luhansk. For Russia and Ukraine, the battle for Luhansk is not the end, Kofman said. “The battle for Severodonetsk and Lysychansk may be over, but right now we are essentially in what will ultimately be the battle for Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, and the big question is whether or not the Russian military can take those cities’, Kofman. he said. Putin ordered an operational pause for Russian forces in the region, according to the Institute for the Study of War, and Ukrainian officials said they doubted the Luhansk victory meant Russia was on track to win the war. “It hurts a lot, but he has not lost the war,” said Luhansk regional governor Serhii Heidei, according to Reuters.
