Speaking at a defense forum late Saturday, Avril Haines, the director of the US National Intelligence Service, indicated that Putin was no longer as insulated from bad news about the conditions facing his invasion of Ukraine as he had been earlier in the campaign. . Referring to earlier estimates that Putin’s advisers could shield him from bad news, Haynes said he was “becoming more aware of the challenges facing the military.” “But it’s still not clear to us that he has a full picture at this stage of how challenged they are,” she said, addressing an audience at the Reagan National Defense Forum in California. Haynes’ comments reflect a broader internalization of Russian military failures in Ukraine that is increasingly reflected in statements by key regime propagandists, polls and analysis of the Russian military blogging community. The scale of the challenges facing the Russian president has also been underlined by a series of battlefield setbacks in recent months that have seen the Russians withdraw from the Kharkiv region, Kherson region – including the key city of the same name – and parts of Russian-occupied region of Donbass. Although Moscow responded by attacking key Ukrainian civilian energy infrastructure in an attempt to freeze Kyiv into concessions, that campaign also had only partial impact as Ukrainian engineers moved quickly to repair damaged power plants and Western allies sent emergency generation units to help disperse Ukraine’s energy grid. The Kremlin’s vague comments on a possible Putin visit, made on Saturday, appeared designed more for public consumption in Russia than to indicate that any visit was imminent. Making the remarks to Russian news agencies, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said of any visit by Putin: “In due time, that will happen, of course. This is a region of the Russian Federation.” But with heavy fighting continuing around the key Donbas city of Bakhmut, where Russian forces have been fighting for six months to make little progress, and an attempted Ukrainian offensive reported around Kremina in recent days, political conditions are emerging and security for a Putin visit. ominous. Reports on social media also suggest that Ukrainian forces are making progress in operations on the east bank of the Dnipro River, opposite the newly liberated city of Kherson, following a reported landing at Kinburn Spit last month. Videos and still images posted on Telegram and Twitter show a Ukrainian flag being tied to a crane near the coast in a port area on the east side of the river by a special forces unit, which described the area as a “springboard for the dispossession of the left [east] bank of the Kherson region’. Footage of reconnaissance/reconnaissance operation raising a flag on the left bank of the Dnipro opposite Kherson. The Russians left the area deserted. https://t.co/Ouvqt8PTkd — Tom Warner (@warnerta) December 3, 2022 Ukrainian forces reportedly reached the eastern (left) bank of the Dnipro River opposite the city of Kherson. If confirmed, this limited Ukrainian incursion into the east bank could pave the way for Ukrainian forces to begin operating in the east bank. pic.twitter.com/3uahyVhpjb — ISW (@TheStudyofWar) December 4, 2022 While Ukrainian operations east of the river were under an operational blackout, Vitaly Kim, the governor of Mykolaiv Oblast, previously confirmed the presence of Ukrainian forces in the area. Ahead of a second winter of fighting in Ukraine, Haines suggested fighting was continuing at a “reduced pace” for now, adding that there could be better prospects for Ukrainian forces in the coming months. “Honestly, we’re already seeing a kind of slowing down of the conflict,” she said, adding that her team expected both sides to look to renew, resupply and reconstitute for a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive in the spring. “Most of the fighting right now is around Bakhmut and the Donetsk region,” he said. “But we actually have quite a bit of skepticism as to whether or not the Russians will be ready to do that. And I think more optimistically about Ukrainians in this time frame.” In a late-night speech on Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy criticized Western efforts to target Russia’s oil industry, a key source of funds for Putin’s war machine, saying a $60-a-barrel cap on Russian oil imports was insufficient. “It is not a serious decision to set such a limit on Russian prices, which is quite comfortable for the budget of the terrorist state,” Zelensky said, referring to Russia. He said the level of $60 a barrel would allow Russia to bring in $100 billion in annual revenue. “This money will go not only to war and not only to Russia’s further sponsorship of other terrorist regimes and organizations. This money will be used to further destabilize those countries that are now trying to avoid serious decisions,” Zelensky said. Australia, Britain, Canada, Japan, the US and the 27-nation European Union agreed on Friday to cap what they would pay for Russian oil at $60 a barrel. The cap is due to come into effect on Monday, along with an EU embargo on Russian oil shipped by sea. Russian authorities rejected the price cap and on Saturday threatened to stop supplying nations that approved it. Services contributed to this report
