| July 5, 2022, 7:32 pm
| Updated: July 6, 2022, 12:31 am
If USC and UCLA’s defection to the Big Ten was the first act of Pac-12 realignment, then the second act began in earnest Tuesday. The conference put the rest of the college football world on notice this morning, saying it will immediately go to the negotiating table for its media rights contract that expires in 2024. Not exactly the move you’d expect from a league that just lost its biggest media market and two biggest brands — USC football and UCLA basketball. It’s an even more curious move when you consider reports all weekend suggesting the Pac-12 could see more departures in the coming weeks. But the surprising timing of the announcement from the Pac-12 has led many to believe there is a plan being hatched behind the scenes that could potentially keep the league intact. A high-level Utah source told The Salt Lake Tribune on Tuesday that the league remains “tied” for now and Utah remains committed to the conference. If the Pac-12 is heading to the bargaining table now, he believes it’s coming from a position of strength. Which means either the conferences think it can keep its remaining 10 members or expand. High-level Utah source tells @sltrib that a weekend report of Utah, CU, UA, ASU meeting w/Big 12 today is “blatantly false” Additionally, Utah remains in strong alignment with Pac-12 leadership, the league’s institutions. “Tethered together” is used to describe the suitauton — Josh Newman (@Joshua_Newman) July 5, 2022 Last week, the prevailing thought was that Oregon and Washington were next in line to leave the conference — either the Big Ten or the Big 12. It was also reported by CBS Sports that Utah, Arizona, State of Arizona and Colorado were in deep discussions to leave for the Big 12. A source in the Utah athletic department, however, said it was “blatantly false” that any of those schools were meeting the Big 12. Colorado and Arizona State also issued statements in support of the Pac-12 and its decision to start negotiations now. That said, the issue for the conference remains that simply retaining its members will not be enough. After USC and UCLA pulled out, future revenue projections from a media rights deal for the entire conference have dropped by nearly $200 million. With USC and UCLA in the Pac-12, studies predicted a new Pac-12 media rights deal would be in the $500 million range. Now, a former FOX Sports executive has estimated that a new deal would be worth around $300 million. That means significantly less revenue for each individual member, not to mention playing in an underpowered league with no obvious path to the College Football Playoff. The Pac-12 could add teams from the Mountain West such as San Diego State and Boise State. But with both of those schools in smaller media markets, the added value in a media rights deal wouldn’t make up for the loss of the two big schools. The best option, at least at this point, would probably be to merge the Pac-12 with either the Big 12 or the ACC. Pac-12 insider John Canzano reported that the Pac-12 is actively exploring what a “loose merger” of the Pac-12 and ACC would look like. Combining the Pac-12 and ACC’s existing media markets could be lucrative for ESPN in a deal. ACC has schools in Boston, Washington DC and Atlanta. The Pac-12 brings Denver, Seattle and Salt Lake City. But for this scenario, and most scenarios, the first step would be to keep existing members in the Pac-12. Oregon and Washington remain high-value targets for expansion conferences like the Big 12 and even the Big Ten down the road. Colorado, while issuing a statement in support of the Big 12, also has a board of regents meeting tonight to get “legal advice” on how to navigate the Pac-12 situation.
