Calling for short- and long-term reforms – including an urgent lifting of the embargo on 25 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain trapped by a Russian blockade – Patrick Beasley said the current food affordability crisis was likely to turn into an even more dangerous food availability crisis next year unless solutions are found. The number of people labeled as “acutely food insecure” by the UN before the Covid crisis was 130 million, but after Covid this number has increased to 276 million. Writing a foreword to a new pamphlet by the Blair Institute on the looming hunger crisis, Beasley says: “This number has risen to 345 million because of the crisis in Ukraine. And a staggering 50 million people in 45 countries are now just one step away from starvation. “The international community must act to stop this looming hunger catastrophe – or these numbers will explode. “Global food markets have been plunged into turmoil, with rising prices, export bans and shortages of basic foodstuffs spreading far beyond Ukraine’s borders. Nations across Africa, the Middle East, Asia and even Latin America are feeling the heat of this conflict.” Beasley says threats to global food security have been exacerbated by turmoil in global fuel and fertilizer markets. “Without urgent action, food production and crop yields will decline. This raises the frightening possibility that in addition to today’s food price crisis, the world will also face a real food availability crisis in the next 12 to 24 months – and with it the specter of multiple famines.” Food prices hit a 10-year high in 2022, although there has been a slight easing in the past two months. The crisis was triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its blockade of the Black Sea that blocks critical grain exports. Launching the pamphlet A Global Crisis, Tony Blair told the Guardian that the food crisis now affecting poor countries in Africa, the Middle East and Asia “is absolutely likely to cause serious unrest in the same way it did before the Arab Spring ». He said: “There is a real risk that this is not just a problem for this year alone, but could be worse next year because of the huge problems next year in terms of getting food fertilizer for the crops to succeed. “This will affect millions of people and needs to be brought to the fore at the G20 in a way that it is not currently. It is understandable when leaders focus on their cost of living crisis, but I can tell you from my contacts that this issue is a major preoccupation of African leaders.” A growing concern is the shortage of fertilizers and their escalating price. In 2021 Russia supplied 23% of African fertilizer imports, doubling its share in 2020, leaving Africa dangerously exposed, just as Europe has been exposed due to its dependence on Russian gas. This means, the leaflet says, “that it is not only Ukraine where next year’s harvest – and years to come – will be affected by the Russian invasion. The rapid increase in the price of fertilizers is limiting the ability of countries to boost their own agricultural productivity just when it is most critical to offset the decline in global grain exports.” The grain crisis is likely to be a major source of conflict at a meeting of G20 foreign ministers in Bali, the first time Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, has collectively faced his Western rivals since the crisis began. The US hopes to finally break Russia’s bogus justifications for the blockade. However, many Eastern European countries are deeply skeptical that Vladimir Putin is serious about finding a solution to the Black Sea grain blockade. A foreign minister from Central Europe said: “Putin wants to light a fire in Africa and the Middle East and doesn’t care about the consequences. It’s a deliberate strategy.” The minister doubted that Putin was sincere about a solution to the blockade, pointing out that efforts by the UN and Turkey to broker a naval convoy had already lasted a month and had yet to succeed. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told G7 leaders more than a week ago that the moment of truth in the mediation had arrived, but there was no subsequent breakthrough. Putin appears willing to lift a blockade of Ukraine’s grain export ports only if wider Russian sanctions are lifted, Boris Johnson said this week. Poland and other countries are urging the EU to recognize that the blockade cannot be lifted by negotiation or force and should focus on exporting the grain by train through Poland. This would require a long-term contract with Polish and Baltic ports to make the necessary investments. Official figures on the exact additional impact of the Ukrainian port blockade vary, but UN officials said on Wednesday that the conflict would mean an additional 13 million severely malnourished this year and 17 million in 2023. And next harvest, up to 70 meters of grain in Ukraine. Blair’s team agrees that lifting the embargo will not on its own undo the damage already done to global food security, saying: “This is a crisis that will last years, not months.”
