It’s only been two and a half months since Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the Battle for Donbass – comprising the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk – had begun. Putin will change focus after receiving key updates on the city – live Ukraine Image: The lines of control on the 131st day of the war in Ukraine How did we get here? In late April, Sky News spoke to experts who said Russia was expected to target villages outside Severodonetsk where Ukraine is setting up its defenses. That’s exactly what happened in the following weeks, as Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions and pushed back the defenders. It was thought that the Russians would find resistance tougher to overcome in the cities as they were mired in civil warfare, but the attack on Severodonetsk showed how Moscow intended to achieve its goals. Experts say Russian forces adopted a “scorched earth” approach, with heavy artillery used to pound Ukrainian positions, destroying anything in their path. So, if Luhansk is captured, what’s next for the Ukraine war? Read more: Inside Severodonetsk: A city torn apart by war A break in the battle? Vladimir Putin said the military units that fought in Luhansk “need to rest, increase their combat capabilities.” The Ukrainian governor of Luhansk, Serhii Haidai, said on Monday that defense forces had withdrawn from the city to avoid encirclement. He predicted that the Russians would have a much tougher fight in Donetsk than they had in Luhansk. Military intelligence expert Forbes McKenzie told Sky News that while Russia was successful in capturing Luhansk, it came at a cost. He said: “They have expended a huge amount of munitions. The UK chief of the general staff told RUSI last week that 103 combat units have been committed. This is a huge army and the supply of such would put pressure on any western NATO country and that the Russians must do.” Subscribe to Ukraine War Diaries on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Spreaker While they have withdrawn from Lysychansk, Mr McKenzie believes that may have been what the Ukrainians intended all along because it was so costly for Russian forces. He said: “Their intention was to wear down the Russians as best they could, in the pockets around Severodonetsk and Lysihansk. To make the Russians fight. “There are no great tactical victories for the Russians except to raise their flag over the ruins of Lysychansk. But they really had to spend men and material in a way they wouldn’t want to. “So the Ukrainians have succeeded and will move on the line between Bakhmut and Sloviansk… [and] he will dig in and wait for the Russians to reconstitute and resupply. “We know the casualty rate is horrendous and it’s not really sustainable for either side, so I think we’re going to see an operational pause for the next two weeks as well.” Read more: Ukraine war pushes one of Europe’s biggest utilities to the brink The first line is moving forward Mr McKenzie said the Ukrainians would have covered the ground from where they could continue to destroy Russian forces. “The fighting really needs to get to where the fighting mass of the Ukrainians are,” he told Sky News. “I would estimate it would be the high ground in and around a main road called the E40, which connects Bakhmut to Sloviansk. “It’s possible that the Ukrainians want to take up a position to the east of that and use the main road for their own supply lines, or take up a position to the west of that on the high ground. And that really creates the new line of defense. “It remains to be seen if they will trade these two cities for space or if they will dig in and defend these two cities. “That will come down to how much Zelensky can accelerate his forces. It takes 120, 180 days to get a combat brigade into action. So he’s not going to see his combat brigades in action for a couple of months, maybe until September. “ Read more: Inside Lysychansk, where all Russia will inherit is rubble Use Chrome browser for more accessible video player 3:40 Lysychansk falls to Russian forces Russian tactics in response Mr McKenzie said that for the next six to eight weeks, the Russians were likely to attempt to launch smaller attacks along Ukraine’s defense line, such as those carried out by the Kremlin-linked Wagner Group private army, the who is believed to be operating 12 kilometers southeast of Bahamut. . The next full attack will not come until later, but any gains will be taken, with an advance supported by forces that will follow a successful operation with an attempt to break the Ukrainian line. He said: “The characterization of an operational pause would just be localized armored fighting between… a company-sized group – three to six tanks, something like that. Next week he’ll let us know if that’s the case. “[You’ll] see exploratory attacks… up and down the line. “If we see this for the next six weeks, it shows that the Russians are busy rebuilding their forces. “If there are pockets of resistance that the Ukrainians are leaving behind, just to contain the Russians, then I suspect there is some intention to do that. They will tell people to just spend their ammo and then go back to fighting. “What’s worked relatively well for the Russians is what they call a ‘policy of bypass’ – so if they didn’t want to fight pockets of resistance, they’ve gone back, essentially cutting off the pocket of resistance. We might see them taking a ride for operational gains on the ground, simply by surrounding Ukrainian defenses.” He said this is likely to lead to probing attacks potentially coming from the north, possibly south of Izyum, and the south, for example from the area around the city of Donetsk, where the front lines haven’t really moved for a long time. Cairo. If the Russians make a breakthrough, their strategic goal will be to conquer Donbass by the fall. If they can’t find a way to break through Ukraine’s defenses, the most they can manage will be an all-out attack along a 50km line. When the rains come, it will make the battle very difficult, and then there will be a dramatic drop in temperature, with heavy snow followed by frozen solid ground, neither of which makes the battle easy. If the battle for Donbas continues in November, the front lines are unlikely to move much in the winter, the analyst added. In addition, Mr McKenzie said the Russians would know they had to achieve their objective before Ukraine could bring in NATO supplies and bolster its capabilities.
