Experts say that while Western equipment has been critical to pushing back Russian forces, the West will need to scale up its supplies and even mobilize its own defense industries if it is to avoid a war of attrition that could lose the Ukraine. In his nightly televised address, Zelensky said that thanks to Western supplies, Ukrainian forces are advancing in two directions in the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions on Ukraine’s southern front and are dealing blows to Russia by hitting some of its logistics depots. “After all, [Ukraine] feels that the Western artillery is working very hard,” he said, adding that it “has inflicted very noticeable hits on warehouses and other points important for [Russia’s] logistics.” He said the Ukrainian strikes had “significantly reduced the offensive potential of the Russian military”. Ukrainian forces have released a video of a successful strike on a Russian ammunition depot in occupied eastern Ukraine. They did not reveal the exact location. “The first type of equipment that the West supplied to Ukraine was equipment that didn’t have complicated supply chain issues,” said Jack Watling, a senior researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, referring to equipment that Ukrainians would not need training or spare parts for. . He said that since the initial emergency supplies, Ukraine had asked its allies for whatever equipment they were willing to give. Western governments then provided equipment “piecemeal,” he said, “what they have available and what they think they can deliver without stripping their own forces too much.” The result is that Ukraine has a wide range of equipment components that require its own ammunition, spare parts and training procedures, Watling said. This has created some short-term problems for the Ukrainian command and, together with the logistics of transporting the equipment to the Ukrainian front, has caused delays and low availability. “What we’ve seen in recent weeks is a recognition by countries that more systems support is needed, so we’ve seen countries provide more systems that they’ve delivered in the past as well as Himars,” Watling said. referring to US-supplied missile launchers. “And that makes a tactical difference, but Ukraine still has to manage multiple supply chains, relatively small fleets with many different systems, and the ammunition available is very limited.” A US-supplied Himars multiple missile system is launched from an unknown location in Ukraine. Photo: Via Pavlo Narozhnyy/Reuters Watling said NATO’s limited stockpiles of ammunition meant the West would have to mobilize its own defense industry if it wanted to continue supporting Ukraine’s military and avoid a protracted war of attrition. Serhiy Kuzan, president of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation in Kyiv, said Ukraine had noticed a difference on the front since the Himars and howitzers arrived. “It allows us to engage in an artillery duel,” he said. “And with the longer-range missiles we destroyed more than 20 Russian artillery depots and slowed down the Russian offensive. They need to be more careful.” Kuzan said that so far Western supplies had not given Ukraine a watershed moment in the war, as Russia still had more artillery and ammunition than Ukraine. “But now we’re not just trying to survive their bombs and missiles, we’re trying to hit their bunkers. “Russia uses so much artillery ammunition that they need large supply bases, so that has now become our main target.” Ivan Sechin, a military expert and former Ukrainian and Soviet military intelligence official, said strikes by Western weapons against Russian bases had demoralized Russian forces as well as their logistics. Several videos released by the Ukrainian armed forces show Russian soldiers running from burning bases, which Sechin says would have shaken their perception of where they are safe. “It is clear that it is having an effect because they continue to attack, but not at the same pace as before,” Sechin said. “But with current supplies, Ukraine can only hold them and does not have the ability to launch significant counterattacks. The West is still worried about provoking Russia, but they need to see that the Russian military is not as powerful as we once thought. They present their small victories [in the east] as a great victory”. Russian forces have killed at least seven civilians and wounded others in the past 24 hours across fighting-torn Donetsk, the region’s governor, Pavlo Kirilenko, said. Kramatorsk, Ukraine’s de facto administrative center in Donetsk, was struck by Russia on Thursday, according to AFP, killing at least one civilian and injuring several others. Subscribe to First Edition, our free daily newsletter – every morning at 7am. BST Although shelling continues in eastern Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said Moscow may be on an “operational pause”. “Russian forces will likely be limited to relatively small-scale offensive operations as they attempt to set the stage for more significant offensive operations and rebuild the combat power needed to undertake these more ambitious operations,” the institute said. Russia’s defense ministry appeared to confirm that assessment in a statement on Thursday, saying its units had been given time to rest in order to “recover their combat capabilities”.
