The disturbance that forecasters have been watching for more than a week crossing the Atlantic and Caribbean finally has a name. The National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Bonnie formed at 11 a.m. Friday about 195 miles east-southeast of Nicaragua. The storm is moving west at 20 mph and is forecast to make landfall near the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica Friday night, where tropical storm warnings are in effect. “Heavy rainfall is possible in parts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica today through Saturday. Areas of life-threatening flooding and mudslides are expected,” the National Hurricane Center wrote. Bonnie is one of three tropical systems forecasters are tracking. A disturbance, which formed in the western Gulf of Mexico, has already moved over the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. While not organized enough to become a named storm, it has unloaded torrential rain north of Houston. A third disturbance, after Bonnie, has a 10 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the weekend. However, it is expected to bring stormy rain Friday through Saturday to the Windward Islands, which bridge the Atlantic and the Caribbean. Bonnie, the second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, formed 16 days ahead of average. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a busier-than-normal season — with 14 to 21 named storms, including six to 10 hurricanes and three to six major (Category 3 or higher) hurricanes. The Atlantic season usually peaks in late August and September.
Details on Tropical Storm Bonnie Bonnie is a minimal tropical storm, with sustained winds of 40 mph. The Hurricane Center predicts moderate strengthening before landfall, when maximum winds could reach 50 mph. While such winds will be rather gusty and could cause downed trees and power outages, the main danger is heavy rainfall as the storm moves through Central America. The Hurricane Center is predicting 4 to 8 inches of rain and localized amounts of up to a foot in Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Bonnie could also create a small ocean surge – or raise water 1 to 3 feet above normal dry land near and just north of where its center makes landfall. After sweeping through Central America, Bonnie is expected to emerge into the Pacific Ocean, where it is forecast to gain strength and possibly become a hurricane early next week. However, it is not expected to threaten land. According to tropical weather researcher Phil Klotzbach, Bonnie is somewhat of a rarity – among only six named storms recorded in the Caribbean in July. Tropical Storm #Bonnie has formed in the western Caribbean. Since 1950, only five other named storms have formed in the Caribbean during July: Anna-1961Cesar-1996Claudette-2003Dennis-2005Dolly-2008 pic.twitter.com/OH3tONT0hU — Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) July 1, 2022
Tropical storm Texas-Louisiana Meanwhile, the disturbance built over the western Gulf brings a flood threat from Galveston, Texas, to Lake Charles, La., on Friday. Flood watches cover this entire zone through the afternoon or evening. As of midday, the heaviest rain had moved north of Houston and Galveston, but was showering the Golden Triangle area, which includes Beaumont and Port Arthur, where flood warnings are in effect until 3:45 p.m. “Between 4 and 8 inches of rain have fallen,” the National Weather Service wrote. “Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warning area. Flash flooding is already occurring with several reports of road flooding from Port Arthur and surrounding areas.” The National Weather Service issued a special warning that rainfall rates could exceed three inches per hour at times. Radar showed torrential rain between Beaumont and Lake Charles midday Friday, but forecast models predict the rain will taper off by evening. While 8 inches had fallen in the Golden Triangle area, most areas of Houston had seen about a tenth of an inch. The rainfall washed out much of inland Texas, which is experiencing extreme drought and unrelenting heat. San Antonio had 17 days of triple-digit heat in June. The rule is two.
