The two countries are now expected to quickly become full members of NATO, strengthening the eastern side of the bloc within months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Here’s everything you need to know about why the move happened, what follows and why it matters.
What are the latest developments?
Sweden and Finland both announced their intention to join NATO in May, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that sparked a sudden shift in attitude towards joining the bloc. This announcement was welcomed by almost all NATO leaders – but there was a significant obstacle. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said he does not view both countries’ NATO membership as “positive”, accusing them of harboring Kurdish “terrorist organizations”. According to NATO rules, only one Member State can veto a new candidate. However, great diplomatic progress between the three countries was made at the NATO summit in Madrid on Tuesday. Turkey has signed a tripartite memorandum with Finland and Sweden, raising its opposition and formally welcoming their accession to the bloc. “At NATO, we have always shown that no matter what our differences are, we can always sit down, find common ground and resolve any issues. NATO’s open door policy has been a historic success,” said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. to journalists in Madrid. On Wednesday, NATO formally called on Sweden and Finland to join, launching a multi-stage process that will end with both countries becoming fully members.
What happens next?
Stoltenberg said Wednesday that he expects Sweden and Finland to join the military alliance soon. The invitation triggers a seven-step accession process. Highlights on this path include talks between NATO and the candidate countries. Applicants must formally accept the obligations of membership and then the current Member States must sign an Accession Protocol, before ratifying it individually in their home country. “We need a ratification process in 30 parliaments – it always takes some time, but I also expect it to move fast enough because the allies are ready to try to carry out this ratification process as soon as possible,” Stoltenberg explained on Wednesday. Following this, the candidate country is formally invited to accede to the Washington Treaty, the founding document of the alliance. NATO has an “open door” policy – any country can be invited to join if it is interested, as long as it is able and willing to uphold the principles of the bloc’s founding treaty. The ratification process usually takes about a year, from the signing of the Accession Protocol by existing members to the country acceding to the Washington Treaty. But the war in Ukraine has added an unprecedented urgency to the involvement of Sweden and Finland, and the timetable could be accelerated accordingly.
How did the leaders react?
US President Joe Biden praised progress with Turkey, saying it had sent a clear message to Russia that NATO is united and growing. “The decision of Sweden and Finland to move away from neutrality and the tradition of neutrality to join the NATO alliance will make us stronger and safer and NATO stronger,” Biden said. “We are sending an unequivocal message in my view … that NATO is strong, united and the steps we are taking during this summit are going to further strengthen our collective strength.” Biden said the accession of the two Nordic countries was a sign that Putin’s goals had failed. “Putin was looking for the Finnishization of Europe,” he said, referring to the so-called Finnishization dynamics that have seen Russia dominate its lesser neighbor’s foreign policy for decades. “Europe’s NATO will succeed, and that is exactly what it did not want, this is exactly what needs to be done to ensure security for Europe. And I think it is necessary,” Biden said. The move has been welcomed by all countries on NATO’s eastern front, many of which have expressed concern that they could be next in line with Russia if it succeeds in Ukraine. Estonian Prime Minister Kaya Callas said the move was “important” and Lithuanian President Gitana Nauseda described it as “wonderful news”.
What does NATO membership mean?
The reason why most countries join NATO is due to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which states that all signatory parties consider an attack on one member to be an attack on all. Article 5 has been the cornerstone of the alliance since its founding in 1949 as a counterweight to the Soviet Union. The purpose of the treaty, namely Article 5, was to prevent the Soviets from attacking liberal democracies that had no military force. Article 5 guarantees that the resources of the entire alliance – including the huge US military – can be used to protect any Member State, such as smaller countries that would be defenseless without their allies. Iceland, for example, does not have a permanent army. Former Swedish leader Carl Bildt told CNN that he did not envisage building new large military bases in either country if they joined. He said joining the alliance would probably mean more joint military training and planning between Finland, Sweden and its 30 members today. Swedish and Finnish forces could also take part in other NATO operations around the world, such as those in the Baltic states, where many bases have multinational troops. “There will be preparations for the unexpected as part of preventing any adventure the Russians may be thinking of,” Bildt said. “The real change will be quite limited.”
Why have Finland and Sweden not already joined NATO?
While other Nordic countries such as Norway, Denmark and Iceland were originally members of the alliance, Sweden and Finland did not accede to the pact for historical and geopolitical reasons. Both Finland, which declared independence from Russia in 1917 after the Bolshevik revolution, and Sweden adopted neutral foreign policy positions during the Cold War, refusing to align with either the Soviet Union or the United States. . Sweden’s policy of neutrality dates back to the early 1800s, when the country remained firmly away from European conflicts. King Gustav XIV formally adopted this neutral regime in 1834, according to NATO, and Sweden declared a “non-belligerent” policy during World War II – allowing Nazi troops to cross its territory into Finland, while also accepting Jewish refugees. Sweden chose to maintain its neutral status after the end of the war. Finland’s neutrality has historically proved more difficult, as it shares long borders with an authoritarian superpower. A Finno-Soviet treaty known as the Friendship Agreement, signed in 1948 and extended from time to time over the decades, barred Finland from joining any military alliance deemed hostile to the USSR or allowing a Western attack through the Finnish side. To keep the peace, the Finns adopted an arrangement sometimes called Finanization, in which leaders occasionally accepted Soviet demands. The term was coined during the Cold War and has been applied to other countries in which a superpower exercises control over smaller neighboring states. The balancing act of both countries essentially ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Sweden and Finland joined the European Union together in 1995 and gradually aligned their defense policies with the West, while still avoiding NATO membership.
How the Russian invasion changed everything
Sweden and Finland have been turning to the West on security issues since joining the EU shortly after the end of the Cold War. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has dramatically accelerated the process, prompting it to push for NATO membership. If the Kremlin were willing to invade Ukraine – a country of 44 million people, with a GDP of about $ 516 million and an armed force of 200,000 active troops – what would stop Putin from invading smaller countries like Finland or Sweden? “Everything changed when Russia invaded Ukraine,” Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said in April. “The mentality of the people in Finland, but also in Sweden, has changed and changed very dramatically.” Since the invasion of Ukraine in February, Finland’s public support for NATO membership has jumped from about 30% to almost 80% in some polls. A majority of Swedes also approve of their country’s accession to the alliance, according to opinion polls there.
How did Russia react?
Russia has condemned Finland’s and Sweden’s decision in May to seek membership in the alliance. Its deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, had said at the time that the move would be a “mistake” with “major consequences”, according to Russia’s state-run TASS news agency. This was followed by similar threats from high-ranking Moscow officials. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peshkov said after the announcement that “NATO expansion does not make the world more stable and secure.” He added that Russia’s response would depend on “how far and how close our military infrastructure moves.” Russia currently shares about 755 miles of land border with five NATO members, according to the alliance. Finland’s accession would mean that a nation with which Russia shares an 830-mile border would formally align itself militarily with the United States. The addition of Finland and Sweden would also benefit the alliance, which would disappoint Russia. Both are serious military forces, despite their small population. But Putin has so far been more silent in his rhetoric than some of his officials. He said last month that “Russia has no problems with these countries”, adding that NATO enlargement “does not pose an immediate threat to Russia”. “But the expansion of military infrastructure in this territory will certainly provoke our response,” he told the Collective Security Treaty Organization in Moscow. “We will see what will be based on the threats that will be created for us.”
