The long July 4th holiday weekend is turning into a bonus for Hollywood as Minions: The Rise of Gru is on track for a massive $129.2 million four-day domestic opening, according to early estimates. That includes $109.5 million for the three-day period. (Some opponents believe it could be closer to $140 million by Monday’s close.) Overseas, the film will cross $86 million through Sunday for a worldwide haul of over $200 million. Forget breaking pandemic records for a family title. The Illumination and Universal film will boast one of the all-time top starts at the domestic box office for a Hollywood motion picture, not adjusted for inflation. Friday’s collection alone was around $48 million from 4,400 theaters, including a whopping $10.8 million in previews. The film’s performance is significant as it confirms that parents and younger children are ready to return to the multiplex in droves. Throughout the pandemic, animated films were seen as a kind of challenge. It didn’t help that Pixar and Disney’s Toy Story spinoff Lightyear opened to a tepid $51 million last month before falling sharply in its second outing (still, Lightyear hit a milestone on Friday when it hit $100 million domestically on Friday ). Until now, Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 2, a live-action/CGI hybrid, held the record for the biggest pandemic-era opening for a PG family release with $72 million. In terms of Hollywood’s biggest July 4th openings, 2011’s Transformers: Dark of the Moon earned $115.9 million over the same four-day holiday weekend, followed by Spider-Man 2 ($115.8 million) and Despicable 2017’s Me 3 ($99 million). If the estimates hold, Minions 2 will easily rank at No. 1. Some consider Spider-Man: Homecoming a July 4 entry since the holiday fell in the middle of the week in 2017, but it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison (Homecoming debuted the July 7-9 weekend to $117 million domestically). Another landmark moment: the weekend gross will actually come in ahead of the same frame in 2019 as the box office recovery continues to gain momentum. Holdovers — and especially Top Gun: Maverick — are also a contributing factor. The Rise of Gru is the sequel to 2015’s Minions and is the fifth entry in the Despicable Me franchise, which is the highest-grossing animated series in history, not adjusted for inflation. Heading into the weekend, tracking suggested Minions 2 would open in the $70 million to $80 million range for the four-day holiday, but some believed it would do more. If it goes ahead with the four-day number, the film will hold the record for the franchise’s best opening. But if it makes it through three days, it will be just behind Minions ($115.7 million). Minions 2 will become only the 10th Hollywood animated film to debut with $100 million or more, a list led by Incredibles 2 ($182.7 million). Audiences gave Minions: The Rise of Gru an A CinemaScore and strong exits. The star-studded voice cast includes Steve Carell, Pierre Coffin, Alan Arkin, Michelle Yeoh, Russell Brand, Julie Andrews, Taraji P. Henson, Lucy Lawless, Dolph Lundgren, RZA, Danny Trejo and Jean-Claude Van Damme. The origin story reveals how supervillain Gru (Carell) and the Minions met when Gru was a young boy in the 1970s growing up in the suburbs. Top Gun 2 continues to grow more than a month after first flying into theaters, and it looks to be taking advantage of the patriotic holiday. The pic is estimated to drop 9% from last weekend to $26.9 million over the three days. For the four days, it should earn about $34 million as it heads toward the $600 million domestic mark after ending Monday with $572.6 million. Elvis will drop to No. 3 in its second weekend with an estimated three-day gross of $18.5 million and $23.7 million for the foursome, bringing the biopic’s domestic total to $72 million. Jurassic World Dominion and The Black Phone will round out the top five, giving Universal three of the top five spots.
