Rishi Sunak, who quit the Treasury on Tuesday within minutes of Sajid Javid’s resignation, was widely seen as the front-runner until a series of blunders, including the ill-fated spring statement. He is still performing strongly in the polls – mainly because he is better known than many of his potential rivals – but after the furor over his US green card and with some Tories irritated by the rising tax burden on his watch, he is now appearing much less a slam dunk. That lack of an overwhelming favorite is part of the reason why a whole host of candidates, from Grant Sapps to Jake Berry, haven’t ruled out a rise to the top (and, incidentally, helped Johnson stick around longer). Tory leadership races are nothing if not unpredictable: in 2016 Michael Gove ousted Boris Johnson and Andrea Lindsom quit after appearing to say that “as a mother” she had a greater interest in the country’s future than the childless Theresa May. In 2019, front-runner Johnson was anointed, but only after a live match that included Matt Hancock handing out “Let’s Move Forward” merchandise and Rory Stewart quixoticly filming himself shouting at strangers in a campaign he called #Rorywalks. Already, this nascent race has produced some surprises. Nadhim Zahawi had been seen as a strong contender before he took over as chancellor on Tuesday, drawing up plans for a major economic speech next week and then publishing a letter less than 48 hours later calling on Johnson to resign. As one senior bencher put it: “He’s made himself look like a knob.” Other MPs warned against writing off Zahawi, the smooth talker on the vaccine programme, who already had a campaign plan in place with the help of Lynton Crosby’s consultancy firm. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, who had been tipped as a possible front-runner, was arrested thousands of miles away at a G20 summit while her opponents signed up supporters on Thursday (some have been doing so quietly for months, of course). A senior Brexiter suggested that some MPs who might support Truss should line up instead of staunch pro-Brexit attorney-general Suella Braverman. Her supporters hope she can play the role that was intended for Leadsom in 2017 – sneaking through the MP ballot to the bottom two and then appealing to right-wing members of the party’s base. Others suggest members, who enthusiastically backed Boris in 2019 after Theresa May’s painful period of heavy election campaigning and parliamentary posturing, may now be back in a safer pair of hands after three years of chaos. Sunak, Javid or Jeremy Hunt could all fit that description – although it seemed to suggest that some core One Nation Tories threw their weight behind relative wildcard Tom Tugendhat rather than waiting to hear his pitch Hunt. Both Javid’s and Hunt’s teams said Thursday they would continue to take soundings before making a final decision on whether to do so. Javid’s supporters hope he will be given credit for hastening Johnson’s exit by being the first cabinet minister to quit – although Sunak followed minutes later in a move both sides claim that she was not coordinated. Team Hunt believes he could benefit from being on the backbenches, rather than being tainted by the relationship with Johnson, who polls show is deeply personally unpopular with the public. But after being soundly beaten in the second round last time, the One Nation caucus may decide to pin their hopes elsewhere. Labour’s darkest fear is Penny Mordaunt, the friendly and outspoken Brexiter who reportedly performs well in focus groups. They believe Sunak would struggle to combine the electoral coalition Johnson built in 2019 between former Leave-voting Labor seats and the Tory heartland. In just a few days, the likely shape of the race to be Britain’s next prime minister will be much clearer. but as the starting gun fires, it looks wide open.
