What he says: In a meeting with parliamentary leaders, Putin claimed that Western support for Ukraine would only prolong the war. Putin, who launched the war in February and has taken maximalist positions on any peace deal, said “the West wants to fight us to the last Ukrainian” because it wants to weaken Russia and “impose its version of the world class”. State of play: Russia appears to be preparing for the next phase of its offensive on Ukraine’s eastern border as it completes its capture of Luhansk, one of the two administrative regions of the greater Donbass region.
About half of the other region, Donetsk, remains in Ukrainian hands. That is where the focus will now turn after Moscow’s costly but effective offensive in Luhansk. Russia is shelling Ukrainian positions in Donetsk but has not announced any territorial gains in the four days since it claimed control of Lysychansk, the last major town in Luhansk that had remained in Ukrainian hands. This could signal an operational pause as Russia’s depleted forces prepare for the next phase. Both sides suffered heavy losses in the Donbas, but Russia had the advantage in manpower and, in particular, in artillery. Military analysts expect that balance to shift over time as Kyiv trains additional forces and integrates NATO-caliber weapons.
The big picture: Moscow has declared its intention to “liberate” the entire Donbas region, much of which has now been completely destroyed.
But Nikolai Patrushev, head of Russia’s security council, this week reiterated Moscow’s original, broader goal of “demilitarizing” all of Ukraine. The Biden administration does not believe that Putin’s ambitions are limited to the Donbass. “We hear that they want to defeat us on the battlefield,” Putin said Thursday. “Let them try.” Meanwhile, Ukraine has had some success in its efforts to recapture parts of the southern Kherson region, which could become another important front as the war continues.
Enlargement: Ukraine chose to abandon the cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk rather than engage in the kind of protracted defense seen in Mariupol – apparently seeking to delay and degrade Russia’s forces without risking catastrophic casualties.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday that Kyiv was “finally” benefiting from arms and ammunition sent by Western partners. US-sent HIMARS missile launchers allowed Ukraine to hit ammunition depots and command and control centers behind Russian lines. Ukraine also reclaimed the symbolically and strategically important Snake Island with the help of Western arms.
What to watch: The pace at which new weapons and troops are integrated into the fight will be key to Ukraine’s efforts to limit its territorial losses and possibly launch a counteroffensive later this summer.
Russia, on the other hand, has not imposed mass conscription, but reportedly offers higher-than-normal pay packages to contract soldiers to fill its own ranks.
