The Pac-12 Board of Directors met Friday morning and authorized the conference to explore expansion. The future of the conference is at stake. Said one former conference administrator to The Athletic, “I don’t know if they’ll recover from this.” The obvious hurdle: The Pac-12’s expansion options aren’t great. Despite the lack of football success and substandard media payments, the conference has always offered some level of stability. This is no longer the case. The exits of USC and UCLA have cracked the foundations. Commissioner George Kliavkoff’s first task is to keep Washington and Oregon in place. Without the Trojans and Bruins, the Pacific Northwest schools run the conference together. This won’t be easy. The second is to find the right schools that not only fit the Pac-12 profile but also help the conference in upcoming media rights negotiations. Let’s take a look.
The first calls
San Diego State: The Athletic asked a few industry sources about Pac-12 expansion candidates, and each started here. The Pac-12 never seemed to take San Diego State seriously, mostly because it operates in the California State University system, but it’s time to give the Mountain West school a strong look. San Diego has the 28th largest TV market, which isn’t ideal, but adding the Aztecs would give the Pac-12 a presence in some part of Southern California. This cannot be ignored. Athletically, San Diego State recently outscored several Pac-12 schools in football and men’s basketball, so that’s not a problem. The football program has posted five 10-plus win seasons in the past seven years. The men’s basketball team has made the NCAA Tournament nine times since the 2009–10 season. More importantly, the Aztecs have shown a commitment to taking the next step. This fall, they are scheduled to open the $310 million Snapdragon Stadium as their next football home. There is some momentum here. Boise State: Another Mountain West program, Boise State has always been a popular expansion candidate simply because of its football success. It’s a nice starting point. The Broncos would compete in the Pac-12. Additionally, the men’s basketball team just won the Mountain West title and played in the NCAA tournament. Geographically, Boise also fits the Pac-12 footprint. (Not that geography matters anymore.) Biggest downside: The Boise market doesn’t add much media value.
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Houston and TCU: Nine months ago, with the sport still reeling from the announcement of Texas and Oklahoma’s SEC intentions, the Pac-12 considered expansion. The Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported that Houston and TCU were the conference’s top targets. Eventually, the Pac-12 stuck with 12, Houston settled into the Big 12, and everything looked good. Until Thursday. Location-wise, this works. Dallas-Fort Worth is the nation’s fifth largest media market. Houston is eighth. That would also put the Pac-12 in the heart of talent-rich Texas, which would help with recruiting. Houston makes sense. TCU brings an issue in that the Pac-12 has typically had little interest in schools with religious beliefs. But in recent years, TCU has distanced itself from those ties. The Pac-12 is also in no position to be selective. Texas Tech: When it comes to Big 12 schools — and you can add Baylor and Oklahoma State here, too — it ultimately comes down to this: With the Big 12 pretty solid, how interested are they in salvaging a staggered Pac-12? According to industry sources, Texas Tech has long envisioned a move west, but that may have changed recently. Like Houston and TCU, this would bring the Pac-12 to Texas, but that’s probably the biggest plus.
It’s worth checking out
SMU: If Big 12 schools aren’t an option, SMU is worth a look. The American Athletic Conference school lacks the football punch that San Diego State and Boise State could offer, but SMU brings media value to Dallas. Like Houston and TCU, adding the Mustangs would also help with recruiting. UNLV: Another Mountain West school, UNLV would do little to improve the Pac-12 in terms of competitive balance, but the Las Vegas market is attractive. In addition, the conference already has a presence in Sin City, hosting its league football and postseason basketball tournaments there. — Max Olson, Christian Caple and Chris Vannini contributed reporting. (Photo: Kirby Lee/USA Today)
