“We are in one. It’s the real deal. I don’t know how big it’s going to get, but it’s here,” said Toronto infectious disease specialist Dr. Isaac Bogoch, on CTV News Toronto on Monday.
Bogoch points to the COVID-19 wastewater data as a central indicator. Throughout June, this data has been trending upward. It follows a sharp drop in viral activity discovered in Ontario wastewater during most of the spring.
Along with sewage, Bogoch points to an increase in the number of people testing positive for COVID-19. While testing is limited, the seven-day average for new cases detected through PCR testing rose 34 percent week-over-week, according to the province’s most recent data.
“This was a very reliable indicator, even though we don’t test widely,” Bogoch said. “At least we try consistently.”
He said hospitalizations, which are a late indicator of the spread of COVID-19, are also increasing. The latest figures from the government said there are 585 people in Ontario hospitals who have tested positive for the virus, up from 486 a week earlier.
“This is largely driven by Omicron’s BA.5 subclass. We know that it is probably the dominant variant right now in most of Canada. And it has the ability to break through some of the protective immunity that we would get from vaccination or recovery from infection,” he said.
In May, Dr. Kieran Moore, the province’s chief medical officer, predicted a “low level of endemic activity” throughout the summer followed by higher transmission in the fall due to an increase in indoor activities. But since then, BA.5 – the fastest growing sub-variant – has spread rapidly across Ontario.
Dr. Sumon Chakrabarti, an infection specialist in Mississauga, said while B.A. 5 has largely taken over the country, the timing of this wave is worth noting.
“In the summer, the health care system is much better equipped to deal with it and absorb it,” he said.
Compared to the Omicron wave in December, Chakrabarti said he doesn’t expect to see the same size.
“We just have to remember the nature of respiratory viruses, especially as they become a little bit more contagious and become more immune tolerant. There’s an equilibrium that forms between the community and the virus, and you see this wave activity,” Chakrabarti explained.
“This wave will be different and not as intense as the previous ones.”
Speaking to CP24 Monday afternoon, the scientific director for Ontario’s COVID-19 Scientific Advisory Panel did not confirm that Ontario was specifically in another wave of the pandemic, saying only that “the virus has proven to be a really formidable opponent.”
“It has mutated to such an extent that what is now circulating in Ontario, Canada, and the world is almost unrecognizable compared to what we originally saw,” said Dr. Fahad Razak. “What will happen in the future, it’s really unclear.”
“The fall is going to be a high-risk time for us, though, because it’s not just COVID. It’s the other respiratory viruses like influenza, RSV, so we have to be aware of that,” he said.
Razak urged residents to continue getting their COVID-19 vaccine to better protect themselves from the virus.
