Since last week’s shocking announcement that USC and UCLA are headed to the Big Ten in 2024, all is quiet under the Golden Dome. The longer it stays that way, the more one can assume the Fighting Irish are weighing their biggest decision in decades. Maybe never. After the land shifted again last Thursday, the next topic was the other attractive acquisition candidates available as the industry consolidates power into two conferences, the Big Ten and the SEC. Notre Dame stands alone at the top of this list – as desirable as ever, and perhaps as vulnerable. “The next decision,” one industry insider told Sports Illustrated, “really rests with Notre Dame.” The same person speculated that the decision could come “a week, or six months, or a year from now. We do not know.” It stands to reason that the Big Ten will always receive the object of its undying affection, now or sometime in the murky future. It doesn’t matter if Notre Dame would be the 17th, 19th or 21st team in the league, the Big Ten would make it to achieve the big prize it has been chasing since time immemorial. So the Irish, as always, can afford to be selective and patient. Notre Dame football recently played under the ACC during the 2020 football season that was shortened due to COVID. South Bend Tribune/USA TODAY Network A source familiar with the school’s thinking told Sports Illustrated that “independence remains the preference and leader in the clubhouse.” It will take a lot to dislodge Notre Dame from its cherished identity, but the instability of the entire landscape remains a concern and could further affect the Irish outlook. Two areas to watch: the fortunes of both the College Football Playoff and the Atlantic Coast Conference. If either or both collapse, Notre Dame could be forced into the Big Ten. Under his current contract, the playoffs cease to exist in January 2026. There is no guarantee that another iteration of him will be replaced, of any magnitude. “The vast majority of writing assumes a playoff and that it’s going to get bigger,” says the industry source. “I’m not sure about this case.” It’s possible the diminished Big 12 and Pac-12 will freeze. ACC is also likely to be sidelined. It’s possible the Big Ten and SEC will each hold their own mini-playoffs, after which the champions of the two leagues meet for a supposed national title — or not, and each conference can proclaim its supremacy without making it in field. (If you want a mean throwback to the mean bowl system, this would be it.) Notre Dame wants a run to a national football championship. If everything but the Big Ten and SEC are reduced to non-contender status, that could force them off Independence Island. Or, if the ACC splits amid its long-term hold on a disadvantageous contract with ESPN, the school would have to consider its sports competing in that league and might have to relocate. The school of thought on why it might finally be time for Notre Dame to join the Big Ten involves two classrooms: national programming and revenue. Scroll to continue One of the reasons the Irish love their independence is the ability to schedule their football games from coast to coast, appeal to a national constituency of fans and recruit philosophy (both sporting and academic). with arch-rival USC in the Big Ten along with UCLA, Notre Dame’s ability to play on the West Coast would remain annually viable. So is the East Coast, with Rutgers and Maryland. Plus there’s the core of “neighborhood” opponents the Irish have played regularly over the years in Purdue (87 meetings), Michigan State (79), Michigan (44) and Northwestern (49). However, it seems very likely that the USC-Notre Dame series will continue without them being conference siblings. The number of schools that would turn down the opportunity to schedule Notre Dame will likely remain small no matter what. In terms of revenue, which has become the dominant talking point for anyone and everyone in terms of realignment, joining the Big Ten would certainly have its advantages. The league’s new media rights contracts will be a geyser raining down on member schools. Many people have theorized that Notre Dame would be dangerously far behind in this regard if it does not participate in the conference. This may not be the case. But don’t think for a minute that the Irish will let money alone drive the decision on whether to abandon what has been a guiding principle since the school went national in football more than a century ago. The financial gap between maintaining independent status and joining the Big Ten may well be considered manageable by Notre Dame’s administration. This has never been an athletic department operating on a budget the size of Texas or Ohio State, and likely doesn’t feel the need or desire to spend in the neighborhood of $200 million a year on sports. That’s at the heart of the identity Notre Dame doesn’t want to give up: it’s a one-of-a-kind football-academic-marketing powerhouse. It is the only school in the country to be ranked in the top 20 of both the US News & World Report national university rankings and NCAA football attendance. Notre Dame is 17th in the most recent academic rankings and has fluctuated between 15th and 17th in home attendance from 2017 to 21 (excluding 2020, when attendance was a useless metric in college sports during the early months of the COVID pandemic -19). In numbers that resonate with TV executives, Notre Dame ranks eighth in the number of non-bowl/playoff games attended by at least three million people in recent seasons, per Sports Media Watch. The Irish had a total of 16 games with three million or more viewers in 2018, ’19 and ’21 (throwing out the 2020 numbers due to the difference in the number of games played across the country). That ranks behind only Alabama (26), Ohio State (25), Georgia (22), Michigan (22), Oklahoma (22), Penn State (19) and LSU (18). It’s worth noting that every school ahead of Notre Dame on the list is a current or future member of the Big Ten or SEC. And the next four after the Irish are as well (Auburn, Wisconsin, Florida and Texas A&M). There are other smaller, private, prestigious schools that have had success in football, most notably Stanford and Northwestern in recent years. But they can’t match the size of Notre Dame’s following – they don’t fit over 75,000 bottoms in seats or park three million of them in front of a screen. Notre Dame has forever been able to have everything it wanted: academic prestige, football success, enough money to fund more than 20 competitive varsity sports — and the beloved autonomy of FBS independence. He won’t give any of that up willingly, even in a college sports world rocked by turmoil. The guess here is that the school maintains its independence as long as it can, until July 4, 2023 and beyond. This only changes if the current structure continues to destabilize in a profound way. Something that could happen. While many of the college sports are waiting for signs from Notre Dame, the school can afford to wait for signs from everyone else. More Conference Realignment Reaction:
