On Monday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced plans to put 300,000 troops on high alert as part of “a major overhaul of our collective defense and prevention of the Cold War.” On Wednesday, as NATO leaders gathered for a summit in Madrid, the huge new mobilization seemed more frightening on paper than it really was, more as an ambition than a new dramatic commitment to defending Europe. Stoltenberg’s announcement immobilized the top defense officials of many NATO members, leading them to wonder which of their forces, if any, were included in the 300,000. “Maybe it’s a magic number?” said a senior European defense official who, like others, spoke on condition of anonymity to speak candidly about the confusion. Several senior European security policy officials said they were surprised, without prior notice, to plan to expand NATO’s 40,000-strong rapid reaction force in light of the Ukraine war and Russia’s continuing military threat to Russia. A senior defense official from a different alliance country said its leaders had not been consulted on the number in advance. The official wondered which of his nation’s soldiers were counted in the force – and whether they included staff from a volunteer national guard who has daily chores for civilians. Asked at a news conference on Wednesday about the mystery of the missing troops, Stoltenberg said the “majority” would be based on their countries of origin and the existing personnel – code, in a way, for a simple reclassification of existing troops and are more available for rapid development under NATO command in the event of a security crisis. “Of course, as always when you do something in NATO, the allies need to contribute the forces they have promised to contribute,” he said, without giving a direct reason why some countries have apparently not yet been asked for help. Stoltenberg said he hopes to have the expanded rapid force available sometime next year. A NATO official, speaking on condition of anonymity according to the basic rules of the alliance, said that the specific numbers for each country still need to be determined. Even the 300,000 in total is theoretical at the moment: “The idea is not yet fully completed,” the official said. “We need to do more to build the model before we can find out what the national commitments may be.” Even so, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht has already said her country will offer 15,000 soldiers – a complete division. The confusion about an extremely enlarged The force is not related to a smaller but perhaps more important announcement Wednesday that the alliance will deploy brigades of about 3,000 to 5,000 troops to Russia’s four most vulnerable member states. Although these numbers were much lower than Eastern Europe’s most ambitious demands in the months leading up to the summit, policy makers said so will significantly enhance NATO ‘s ability to defend Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. Baltic leaders are pleased. The units still need finalization as NATO countries send troops and equipment to international forces there in the coming months. A full brigade in each country is about three or four times the number of NATO troops deployed before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Only one division of each brigade will be deployed at a time, but the equipment will be able to move the rest of the team quickly into battle. Policy makers said the change would shift NATO’s presence in the region from that of a train – a somewhat symbolic presence intended to prevent the Kremlin from invading – to a real defense force that could reliably hold back Russian forces for long enough for aid to arrive. US forces will be permanently stationed in Poland, President Biden announced, a major shift in Washington’s commitment to defend the region. The alliance’s current Rapid Reaction Force is intended to be deployed within 15 days. Stoltenberg plans to mobilize 100,000 troops in 10 days and an additional 200,000 in 30 days. “It is very important to have governance structures,” Latvian Prime Minister Christian Karins said in an interview Wednesday. He praised the goal of future expansion, even though many details have not yet been completed. The number of 300,000 soldiers will not be the first time Stoltenberg announces numbers that have to do with both symbolism and reality. Throughout the years since former President Donald Trump took office, the secretary-general has presented data on defense spending estimated to announce how many commitments have increased since Trump took office in 2017, although NATO spending had indeed begun to rise since Russia’s annexation of Crimea. three years earlier. The change was intended to caress Trump’s ego and allow him to receive praise for defense increases. Following his ouster, NATO figures immediately returned to the most complete, accurate estimate of the last years of Barack Obama’s presidency.
