The Trend Research poll, led by Janet Brown Opinion Research, polled 900 Alberts between June 13 and 21. He found that just over half of Albertans polled said they would be very likely (26 per cent) or somewhat likely (26 per cent) to consider voting in favor of the UCP in the next county election. “Now, of course, they do not know who the leader will be. But this is very good news for the UCP because they have been doing badly in the polls lately,” said pollster Janet Brown. “But now, with 52 percent of voters willing to consider the UCP, they seem to have a new life. “A new leader could put them in the lead in terms of public opinion.” Click here if you can not see the chart below. 39 per cent said they were very likely or somewhat likely to consider voting in favor of Alberta’s NDP. Alternative parties such as the Wildrose Independence Party – the party formed after the merger of Wexit Alberta and the Freedom Conservative Party – and the Alberta Party also saw some interest from voters, with 25% and 23% open, respectively. And although UCP was the lead in the poll, it comes with a warning. “People say that not knowing who the leader will be, and sometimes a hypothetical leader, can be more popular than a real leader,” Brown said. “So this is a starting point for UCP. It’s good news for them, but they should probably be careful with that number as well.”
Issues of concern
Open-ended questions were also asked to Alberts about the most important issues facing the province today. Inflation was at the top of the list, reported by 41 percent of Albertians. Twenty-five percent of Albertans also cited health care, while 19 percent cited the economy and 16 percent cited energy-related issues. “Inflation is really critical for Alberts. Right now, it’s their No. 1 issue,” Brown said. “And it is much more worrying than the second most important issue of healthcare, at 25 percent.” Inflation is at the top for many Alberts, according to a new poll by Janet Brown Opinion Research, although health care, the economy and the energy sector are making a significant impact. (Submitted by Janet Brown Opinion Research) However, Brown said inflation has not yet become a major factor in the campaign. “It is interesting that we do not hear much from political leaders. And that could just lead to the fact that political leaders do not really know what the solutions to inflation are,” he said. “So there is this big gap right now between what the public is thinking about and what they probably want to talk about, and what the candidate leaders and other politicians are talking about.”
Leader a big question mark
While the new poll may seem like a remarkable improvement for UCP, Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt said a potentially exhausting leadership race ahead poses some major challenges. “I will not immediately jump to the conclusion that we are going to see another UCP-majority government,” Bratt said. “It simply came to our notice then [Alberta Premier Jason] “Kenney… without new policies, just his resignation has increased support.” Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Mount Royal University, says that while inflation has been a major concern for respondents, the UCP candidate leaders have devoted much of their campaign to autonomy and secession. (Dave Gilson / CBC) Bratt said the NDP remains a formidable challenge that the UCP must overcome. And a possible range of support for the Wildrose Independence Party could depend on the final leader being elected, he said. “If a Brian Jean or a Danielle Smith wins, then, for sure, I could see [those voters] going to UCP. But what if it’s a win for Travis Toews or Leela Aheer? What does this do? ” said Brat. The survey also asked where Alberts are in the political spectrum, where zero means left and 10 means right. The average answer given was 5.7 out of 10. The research was released at the Alberta Restart Conference, an all-day event hosted by New West Public Affairs in Calgary on June 28. Methodology: This survey was conducted from 13 to 21 June 2022 by Alberta-based Trend Research under the direction of Janet Brown Opinion Research. The study involved 900 Alberts aged 18 and over. Respondents were initially randomly contacted by live telephone interviews and were given the option (1) to respond to the survey by telephone at that time. (2) answering by phone at a more convenient time; or (3) download the link and respond to the survey electronically. The original sampling list contained about 50 percent landlines and 50 percent cell phones. Interviewees made up to five attempts to reach each phone number in the sample before declaring it inaccessible. The margin of error for a sample of 900 people is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, 19 times 20 (ie 95% confidence interval).
