Those at risk in southern England include Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab, Cabinet Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg and former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt. Members of parliament in London whose seats are in jeopardy include former cabinet ministers Iain Duncan Smith and Theresa Villiers Johnson himself would be poised to lose to Labor in Uxbridge, though pollsters often warn that incumbent prime ministers are enjoying some electoral cushioning. Others at risk of losing their seats are key critics of the prime minister, Steve Baker and William Wragg. The poll shows that the Conservative vote holds better in the North East and East Midlands than in the South, as confirmed by the results of the local elections. At least one senior MP has privately warned his colleagues that dislike of Johnson creates a perfect storm for the party where it could lose large majorities in the south of England and a smaller lead in the north of England as fewer voters in the north have to turn against Tories to lose the seat. The lawmaker said there was a widespread view in the party that he could not win the Johnson-led election after the election defeats in Wakefield, Tiverton and Honiton. The warnings came as Labor sources downplayed the possibility of Conservatives distancing themselves from areas of the “red wall” – stressing that the party believed it was on track to win many of those seats. A senior Tory spokesman in a precarious position said that voters in liberal, southern seats were winning more successfully than Labor leader Kir Starmer than traditional Labor voters. They said these voters were content to vote for either Labor or the Liberal Democrats in order to oust an existing Conservative. “Starmer is definitely appealing to my voters, there is no doubt,” they said. Johnson insisted that the issue of his leadership had been “settled” after winning a vote of no confidence in his leadership – although a majority of his supporters voted against him. He said he planned to hold two more elections. “Right now I am actively thinking about the third term and what could happen then, but I will review it when I get to it,” he told reporters at the weekend. Johnson is safe from a vote of confidence for at least a year under party rules set by the 1922 Commission Executive Committee. However, many of his critics seek election to the committee within weeks, including Baker. Deputies said they believed there were other flashpoints that could trigger a change in the rules to force another tender. The most likely is the report of the committee of parliamentary privileges, which investigates whether Johnson misled the parliament for violations of the lockdown in Downing Street. Baker also said the party would have to move if Johnson tried to call an election before the privilege committee could return its verdict. Other possible moments of crisis include another possible election loss in Somerton and Frome, where MP David Warburton is suspended following allegations of sexual misconduct and drug use. The seat has a large majority of Tories, but was previously held by the Liberal Democrats. Several of Johnson’s critics, including former Cabinet Secretary Damian Green, urged the cabinet to step in and tell Johnson he could not win an election. On Tuesday, Pauline Latham, a Mid Derbyshire MP who had previously served on the committee, told BBC Radio Derby that the cabinet should take action against the prime minister. Latham, who voted against Johnson in the no-confidence vote, said: “The problem is that many of them think they can keep their job for a long time and do not want to. [depose the prime minister] but in reality, what is more important, your country or your party or your job? “We need the cabinet to move.” Subscribe to the First Edition, our free daily newsletter – every morning at 7 p.m. BST Latham said the recent resignation of party chairman Oliver Downen was seen as a clear reaction to the election defeat. “If another cabinet minister goes, I think then we will see some, but they seem to be staying together and I think it is because they want to keep their jobs.”
Large beasts in danger
Boris Johnson – Uxbridge and South Ruislip Majority: 7,210 Johnson is set to lose his Labor job, according to the latest YouGov MRP poll, although incumbent prime ministers often benefit from slightly sidelined results in their favor. Dominic Raab – Esher and Walton Majority: 2,743 The Liberal Democrats have long targeted the vice president, and current opinion polls suggest they would take a seat. Jeremy Hunt – Southwest Surrey Majority: 8,817 Hunt has been targeted by “progressive alliance” activists in the past, including an independent NHS activist when he was Secretary of Health. The majority will seem appetizing to the Liberal Democrats. Steve Baker – WycombeMajority: 4,214 Workers are steadily gaining ground, with demographics moving in the party’s favor. Jacob Rees-Mogg – North East Somerset Majority 14,729 A tough call for a progressive alliance – Labor is the main challenger and took over the mayoralty of West England, but the Liberal Democrats recently took over the council and the vote last time was almost unanimous between the parties. Its majority was lower in the past, but increased in 2019.
