Partygate and the cost of living crisis mean that if an election were held tomorrow, Johnson’s majority in 2019 would likely disappear and Keir Starmer would end up in Downing Street. Much analysis has therefore turned to which voters are moving away from the Conservatives and how this is happening in different constituencies. The recent changes in voting intention come after a decade of political realignment. Older voters, particularly pensioners, have turned to the Conservatives while younger graduates, particularly those in big cities, have moved to Labour. However, this trend has left an increasingly important group of voters under-discussed and under-analyzed. What about those working-age voters who live outside big cities and don’t have degrees? Since political analysis is now only considered legitimate if it has a fun name attached, we’ve dubbed these “Stick” (working-age-no-degree) voters. In the 2019 Conservative crash, Wands voted roughly in line with the country – with 31% backing Labor and 43% voting Conservative. However, our latest poll with Progressive Britain shows that Labor now has a five-point lead among this group – on 38%, compared to the Tories’ 33%. Among Wand voters who supported the Conservatives at the last election, just 54% say they would still support the party in tomorrow’s election. One in nine (11%) would switch straight to Labor while 27% don’t know who they would support. And while his personality has undoubtedly helped in 2019, almost two-thirds (64%) of Wands now have an unfavorable view of the prime minister compared to just 26% who have a positive view. These shifts matter because, despite being underreported, this group is a large percentage of the population. By our definition, 37% of voters are Wands – far more than, say, pensioners, who make up just 18% of the population. And the Rands are much more likely to live in the constituencies that Labor needs to win to win a majority. This includes many “red wall” constituencies such as West Bromwich West, Stoke-on-Trent North and Ashfield. But it also includes other fringe areas such as Peterborough, Corby, Swindon and Milton Keynes. In fact, of the 93 most marginal constituencies Labor will try to win from the Conservatives, most voters in 83 of them are working-age people without degrees. More than six in 10 (62%) of those living in Wakefield, where Labor recently made an impressive election gain, are Wand voters. Since they are so important, it’s worth asking: what do Wand voters want? And what can parties do to win their support? First, Wands are more socially conservative than the electorate as a whole, with 59% having voted to leave the European Union in 2016. This is probably why support for the Conservatives in this group has increased in the last elections. But as research by Jane Green of the University of Oxford and Roosmarijn de Geus of the University of Reading found, Wands are also the most financially insecure group of voters. They are less likely to have cash in their bank account to fund an emergency expense and more likely to suffer because of the cost of living crisis. Because of their lack of financial security, Wands are more “wage-oriented” than other voter groups. When deciding whether to support a policy, they are more likely to think about the impact it would have on them and their family and less likely to care about the impact it would have on the country as a whole. In recent months, this self-interest has become more important than their socially conservative views. While most groups of voters believe the cost of living is the most important problem facing the country, Wand voters are even more likely to think so. In our most recent poll, 53% said it is one of the most important political issues right now. Ultimately, the battle for this group will come down to hard finances. Any party that can offer them a realistic vision of how to improve their personal financial situation in difficult times is likely to win their support. And, given the electoral importance of Wand voters, the party that can win their support will win the next election.
Chris Curtis, head of political polling, Opinium Tom Collinge, head of policy and communications at Progressive Britain, also contributed to this article
