But for Boris Johnson there was little to take comfort in when he faced MPs in the House of Commons on Wednesday. When asked by Conservative MP Tim Loughton if there was anything that would persuade him to stand down, he replied that it was the job of a prime minister who had won a “colossal” mandate to carry on even if times were tough. The problem for Johnson is that an ever-smaller number of MPs agree with him. After losing two senior cabinet ministers – in the form of his chancellor, Rishi Sunak, and health minister, Sajid Javid – his government is in freefall. Downing Street aides have tried to back the prime minister by moving quickly to replace vacant cabinet posts, but that hasn’t stopped others from following suit. In the rest of the government, there are now about 20 vacancies. Tory MPs, meanwhile, are conspiring to find a way to force him to resign before the summer break in two weeks. Given the failed attempt to impeach him last month, Johnson is technically safe from another no-confidence vote until June next year. To try to fix this, members of the 1922 executive will meet to discuss a rule change: it’s possible Johnson could end up facing another no-confidence vote as early as next week. While aides at No 10 say they are optimistic about his prospects, the numbers don’t look good. “The mood has changed,” one member of the 2019 intake tells me. “Every day that stays is bad for the party.” This has been a long time coming. Johnson never bothered to bring his party on board – after winning a majority of 80 in the 2019 general election, many in his team decided there was no need. Now it’s coming back to haunt him. “There is no way back for him,” adds a former minister. “We always knew we made a deal with the devil, but we didn’t expect him to be incompetent as well.” Recent comments by Johnson on his foreign tour, in which he suggested he would not change and talked about his hopes for a third term, helped turn fence-sitting lawmakers against him. Even if he manages to avoid a vote in the coming weeks, he will then face the prospect of trying to govern when so many in the party are openly against him. Before the Pincher scandal, which accelerated moves against the prime minister, aides in No 10 were talking about the party conference in October as an opportunity for Johnson to regain control. This now seems ambitious. Even those ministers who decided to stay with the prime minister have doubts. Michael Gove has kept a particularly low public profile after reportedly calling on the prime minister to leave on Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, there may be more to displays of faith than meets the eye. There is an argument that for potential leadership candidates such as Liz Truss or Nadhim Zahawi, it could be beneficial for them to remain in the cabinet and then win the vote of Johnson loyalists in any contest. Zahawi – now chancellor – is increasingly being discussed as a serious candidate for leadership. But anyone who thinks the end of Johnson will mean a more harmonious period for the Conservative party is likely to be wrong. If he leaves, the leadership contest that follows will be vicious and the task the winner will face in trying to lead the parliamentary party daunting. “It’s going to be awful,” says a former minister. “I think it’s best to stay out of it completely and then see where things are.” After all, Johnson still has a loyal following and they don’t take kindly to the idea of MPs changing the rules to oust a prime minister who won the biggest majority since Margaret Thatcher. Such a figure warns that any revision of the 1922 rules would free up forces MPs will regret. Expect Johnson’s praetorian guard – made up of the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nadine Dorries – to work against any potential candidate deemed insufficiently loyal to the prime minister. Among the old guard there is a particular venom for Rishi Sunak, whom they see as insufficiently loyal or supportive, even before he stepped down as chancellor. “They would also have Boris on the sidelines as a thorn in their side – either in the Commons or through a column,” adds a senior Tory. For now, Downing Street won’t even get involved in these scenarios. The message from the Prime Minister and his top team is that he will keep fighting and MPs will get through this period of anger in time. Conservatives worry he will do anything to stay in power, such as calling a snap election, even though this will face massive opposition from within the party. What is clear is that with each passing hour, the prime minister’s grip on power is loosening.
