This is a story of evil versus good.
It is the story of a despot’s merciless attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine, against the historic, but still insufficient, rallying of democratic states to save the country.
At noon on Monday in the industrial city of Kremenchuk in central Ukraine, sitting peacefully astride the Dnipro River, about 1,000 men, women and children wandered into the Amstor shopping mall, trying to enjoy some normalcy amid a brutal war.
About 185 miles away and several thousand feet overhead, Russian bombers flying over the Kursk region of Russia, likely Tupolev Tu-22M3s, released at least two Kh-22, 2,000 lb. medium-range cruise missiles, developed in the 1960s for to destroy aircraft carriers. An air raid siren blared, and the Ukrainians, well-practiced in the fifth month of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war, ran for safety.
At the same time at the luxury retreat of Schloss Elmau in Germany’s Bavarian Alps, the Group of Seven leaders, representing the world’s largest democracies, huddled around conference tables in a bid to add to their sweeping sanctions on Putin and Russia. They discussed options to choke Putin’s war-fueled finances, including imposing a price cap on oil sales to Russia that could reduce the $1 billion the world pays Russia every day for energy.
As they tried to make progress, one of the rockets screamed into the mall. A CCTV footage captured a bucolic day, with wispy clouds dotting the otherwise blue sky, and then the huge fireball of the explosion and the billowing of giant black smoke. Shards of glass and debris flew past the camera.
A day later, as Ukrainian officials counted the death toll — at least 20 dead and 59 wounded in a war where Putin’s military has already killed tens, if not hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians — NATO leaders gathered for a summit that brought to Madrid. They were excited by the timing of Putin’s mall strike, knowing it was aimed at them as well as Ukraine.
“Talk as much as you want,” Putin seemed to tell them. “Sign whatever papers you want. I will overcome you and your broken societies with my war of attrition, restoring Imperial Russia and sealing my place in history even as your decadent West continues its decline.”
Putin could be sure that despite the historic agreements in Madrid this week, and even though arms deliveries from the United States and its partners are increasing in number and quality, no one has yet been willing to provide the heavier, longer-range and more accurate weapons. weapons that could have prevented the mall strike and so much more, and may enable a much-needed counter-attack.
Even so, NATO has reached a level of unity not seen in more than 30 years.
At the end of a marathon, hour-long negotiating session involving NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, the sides reached an agreement that paved the way for Finland and Sweden. to join NATO and end, in Sweden’s case, two centuries of neutrality.
The next day NATO leaders would sign a new Strategic Concept, highlighting Russia as the most present danger, but including China for the first time as a matter of common concern. The leaders of Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand attended a NATO summit for the first time as partners and guests.
NATO’s language in China signaled that the alliance understood it was facing a global and interconnected challenge. Considering that 30 countries were required to sign the text, many of which still have China as their number one trading partner, it is a powerful read.
“The stated ambitions and coercive policies of the People’s Republic of China challenge our interests, security and values,” it said. He later continues, “The DPRK seeks to control key technological and industrial sectors, critical infrastructure, and strategic mineral and supply chains. It uses its economic leverage to create strategic dependencies and enhance its influence. It seeks to subvert the international order based on rules, including in the space, cyber and maritime domains.”
There was much celebratory talk among the allies about their increased unity and deeper purpose, including President Joe Biden’s declaration that NATO was sending an “unmistakable message” to Putin.
Among other agreements, NATO has moved to shore up its eastern and southern flanks, and the US military will send a corps headquarters to Poland and more troops to the Baltics and Romania. NATO pledged to increase its high readiness force from 40,000 to 300,000, even as Sweden and Finland brought significant new military weight to it.
Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albarez heralded the summit as as important as Yalta (heaven help us) or the fall of the Berlin Wall.
At a NATO Public Forum co-hosted by the Atlantic Council on the sidelines of the summit, I asked French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna how she would rate the historic moment.
“History will tell,” he said.
No one should miss Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s message to G-7 leaders this week that they must provide him with the means for a counteroffensive to push back Russian troops before winter sets in and Ukraine’s allies lose interest. them in the face of growing economic headwinds.
“Russia is fighting two wars right now,” writes Greg Ip in the Wall Street Journal. “A hot war with Ukraine whose cost is measured in death and destruction and a cold war with the West whose cost is measured in economic hardship and inflation.”
Putin may fold over time in the face of a more determined West and a better-armed Ukraine, Ip writes, but it is betting that it may “impose enough short-term costs on Western consumers that political support for Ukraine collapses.”
I leave Madrid encouraged by a growing consensus among European and Asian democracies that a Ukrainian defeat would be disastrous for Europe and the world order, as other despots measure their chances.
However, I also leave disheartened that for all the progress this week, military support and sanctions are still not equal to the historical stakes.
In this struggle between a determined despot and the rallying democracies, the forces for good had a great week. If they don’t build on it and quickly, it won’t be enough.
