Early on the morning of June 30, the Russian cargo ship Zhibek Zholy departed the Ukrainian port of Berdyansk, carrying 7,000 tons of grain. The voyage was hailed by the Moscow-appointed local chief of the occupied Zaporizhzhia region as “the first merchant ship” to leave a Ukrainian port after months of war, carrying desperately needed supplies to “friendly countries”. However, many analysts believe the cargo is likely to have been stolen from Ukrainian stores. They warn that the fate of the disputed grain shipment now threatens to poison fragile talks for a permanent ceasefire in the Black Sea, further reducing hopes for peace and deepening the food crisis plaguing the world. “This is a complete farce,” said Nazar Bobitski, representative of the Polish Association of Employers and Entrepreneurs in Ukraine. “It’s extremely possible that Russia will say ‘look, we can organize safe corridors for grain’, but from Russian-held ports – meaning Ukrainian farmers will have to hand over the grain to Russian forces to get passage.” Russia’s decision to launch the Zhibek Zholy on its journey is typically provocative and could have far-reaching consequences. It is expected to dock in Turkey on the evening of July 1, putting the Ankara government in a potentially difficult position. As the war disrupts global commodity markets, countries in North Africa and the Middle East are facing supply shortages of wheat that would normally be sourced from Ukraine. All commercial shipments of Ukrainian food products through the Black Sea have been halted since the start of the invasion. The UN has warned that a famine emergency could arise. Turkey is establishing itself as an independent mediator in the talks between Russia and Ukraine aimed at the safe opening of sea lanes. But if Ankara allows the Zhibek Zholy to offload its potentially expropriated cargo, it risks being seen in Kyiv as handling Vladimir Putin’s loot. Ukraine is looking to Turkey to provide security guarantees for its grain transit through the Black Sea. Instead of turning the ship away, however, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday appeared to have decided to embrace his potential role in the supply chain. “We can supply or re-export wheat, barley, sunflower oil and other agricultural products to countries in need,” Erdogan told a news conference, according to Russia’s TASS news agency. The Turkish president is ready to discuss the issue of exports during phone talks with Putin and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky, the agency said, adding that the talks could take place any day. The situation leaves Ukraine in a treacherous position. “The Ukrainians have a very difficult balancing act: in this case, they don’t want to look like obstructionists, even when Russia is stealing their grain,” said Asli Aydıntaşbaş, from the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Russia’s whole game is to get Ukraine out of this grain export mechanism,” he said, “so the Russians can go and say they’re open to negotiations and a reasonable deal, but the Ukrainians aren’t.” The stakes remain high. As commodity prices rise, driving inflation, Russia blocks over 20 million tons of grain to Ukraine. Earlier this week, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi expressed hopes that a deal to reopen Black Sea shipping lanes was close, saying all that was needed was a final “yes” from Russia. Ukrainian officials have also signaled that the right security assurances from Turkey or another NATO country could unlock the grain flow within days. These are calculations that are likely to weigh heavily on Kyiv, along with the prospects for long-term peace. “They don’t want to destroy their relationship with Turkey, which is not only about grain exports,” Aydıntaşbaş said. “It will continue to be a very important country for Ukrainians as long as this war continues. There is an understanding that at some point, Ukraine may need negotiations, and that Turkey is a possible country to host those talks — for peace or a ceasefire or a local ceasefire. It is clear that Turkey is Russia’s preferred country for conversation, and now the Ukrainians cannot afford to upset Erdogan.” The West will be uneasy about Turkey accepting such missions, according to Marc Pierini, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe. “It may also create difficulties for Turkey’s future role as an impartial facilitator for Ukrainian grain exports,” he said. Sait Akman, director of the Center for G20 Studies at the Center for Polymer Trade Studies at the Turkish Economic Policy Research Institute (TEPAV), said it appeared that Russia was trying to supply Ankara with grain that would “help lower wheat prices in Turkey, a an important element in the rising prices of bread”. But there may also be a price. “Such a move by Russia will be contested by Ukraine (and the West), which may claim that such missions torpedo talks on opening a safe zone,” he said. “Such incidents can negatively impact Turkey’s critical role and credibility in providing protection for [a] safe passage through the Black Sea”.
