“As of right now, this (governor’s) race is shaping up to be more competitive than any race we’ve seen this century,” said pollster Jim Henson of the Texas Politics Project, which released the findings Tuesday.
The Lone Star State hasn’t seen a Democratic governor in nearly 30 years.
The new poll shows Abbott with 45% of the vote and O’Rourke with 39%. Another 10% were undecided or hadn’t given enough thought to the race.
Abbott led O’Rourke by 11 points in April when the same group polled voters.
Between the two polls, the state experienced the horrific May 24 mass shooting in Uvalde, Texas, where 19 elementary school children and two teachers were killed.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott has 45% of the vote and O’Rourke has 39%. AP/Joel Martinez
The latest poll was also conducted between June 16 and 24, when Texas voters were aware of the possibility that the US Supreme Court would overturn Roe v. Wade.
Voters’ attitudes about abortion and the Uvalde shooting are reflected in the poll, Henson said. However, he warned that current attitudes among voters may not be the same by election day.
“There is movement in the race and there will continue to be movement in the race,” Henson said, pointing to the 10 percent of voters he said were undecided.
Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke speaks at a town hall event in Dallas, Texas. The Washington Post via Getty Images
“Many Texans still don’t pay attention to the governor’s race. The Independents will continue to campaign throughout the October election.”
“If the focus remains on issues like gun control and abortion, it will favor O’Rourke,” Henson predicts. “It’s a more competitive environment for Republicans if border security is the focus.”
