Although the pandemic was not yet over, Biden said, “we are closer than ever to declaring our independence from a deadly virus.” Across the country, requirements for indoor cover-ups were easing as the number of infections and deaths plummeted. Within weeks, even some of the president’s allies privately admitted that the speech was premature. The administration would soon learn that the delta variant could be transmitted by people who had already been vaccinated. The masks came back and then came the polarizing vaccination mandates. The even more contagious variant of the microbe would arrive months later, infecting millions and wreaking havoc during the holiday season. “We were hoping to get rid of the virus, and the virus has a lot more in store for us,” said Joshua Sharfstein, vice dean of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. The number of people in the United States who have died from COVID-19 has nearly doubled, from 605,000 to more than 1 million, in the past year. That sunny speech a year ago marked a crossroads for Biden’s presidency. The pandemic seemed to be subsiding, the economy was booming, inflation was not rising as fast as it is today, and public approval of his job performance was solid. As Biden approaches his second July 4th in the White House, his position couldn’t be more different. A series of miscalculations and unforeseen challenges have Biden struggling to find his feet as he faces a potentially damaging verdict from voters in the upcoming midterm elections. Even problems not of Biden’s fault have fueled Republican efforts to regain control of Congress. The resurgence of the pandemic was quickly followed last summer by the failure of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, when the Taliban seized control of the country faster than the government expected as the US-backed regime collapsed. Negotiations on Biden’s broader domestic agenda then stalled, only to collapse completely in December. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February sent gas prices soaring globally, exacerbating inflation that has hit a 40-year high. Another blow came last month, when the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion under Roe v. Wade and curtailed the ability of the Environmental Protection Agency to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. Suddenly a reactionary president, Biden was left trying to regain the initiative at every turn, often with mixed results. The coronavirus is less of a threat than before and infections are far less likely to lead to death, but Congress refuses to provide more money to fight the pandemic. He signed new gun restrictions into law after the massacres in New York and Texas and is leading a reinvestment in European security as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth month. But he has limited tools at his disposal to address other challenges, such as rising costs and eroding access to abortion. “People are grumpy,” said Lindsay Chervinsky, a presidential historian. The latest Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll shows his approval rating remains at 39 percent, the lowest since he took office and a sharp drop from 59 percent a year ago. Only 14% of Americans believe the country is headed in the right direction, down from 44%. Douglas Brinkley, another historian, said Biden was suffering from a case of presidential hubris after a largely successful first five months in office that included a trip abroad to meet with allies excited to receive a friendly face back on the international stage. He compared Biden’s Fourth of July speech last year to President George W. Bush’s infamous “Mission Accomplished” moment during the second Iraq war. “He was trying to deliver good news, but it didn’t come off,” Brinkley said. “Suddenly, Biden has lost a lot of goodwill.” White House officials reject the comparison, noting that Biden warned of a “strong” variant of the delta in his 2021 speech. Chris Meagher, a spokesman, said deaths from the virus are at a record low now, reducing the shutdown in workplaces and classrooms. “Fighting inflation and lowering prices is the president’s number one economic priority, and he’s focused on doing everything he can to make sure the economy works for the American people,” he said. “And we are in a strong position to transition from our historic jobs recovery to steady and steady growth. Because of the work we’ve done to get the pandemic under control, COVID is not the inhibitor it was for so long.” The promise to effectively deal with the COVID-19 pandemic is what helped get Biden into the Oval Office and defeat President Donald Trump. Since the beginning of Biden’s tenure, his public announcements have been sober and cautious, reserved to follow his predecessor in unfulfilled predictions. The nation’s vaccination program made progress under Biden, and by April 19, 2021, all adults were eligible for vaccination. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, was an adviser to Biden’s transition team. But as the 4th of July approached last year, he was worried and felt that management had not heeded his warnings. “Everyone was in that position of wanting to believe it was over and not fully understanding or appreciating the potential of the variants,” he said. Even now, a full year later, Osterholm is reluctant to say what the future holds. “I want answers too,” he said. “But I don’t know what the variations will bring us. I don’t know what human immunity will be like.” Biden said the virus “has not been defeated” in his July 4 speech and held another event two days later to talk about the delta variant. “It seems to me that it should make everyone think again,” he said as he appealed to people who had not yet been vaccinated. Leana Wen, a professor of public health at George Washington University, said there is more reason to be optimistic this year than last year. Immunity from vaccines or previous infections is much more common, and antiviral therapies are effective in preventing hospitalization and death in vulnerable patients. “It was premature to declare independence from COVID-19 last year,” he said. “But this year the country is in a completely different place and a much better place.” But Wen said Biden might be wary given how things have gone before. “The administration is reluctant to make these proclamations now, when in fact it is time to do so,” he said. Biden’s early strategy of under-promising and over-delivering on COVID-19 was part of a concerted strategy to rebuild public trust in government. The resurgence of the virus has eroded some of that confidence and reduced confidence in Biden’s job performance. Rebuilding that has proven difficult, especially as the country faces challenges, some, frustratingly for Biden, beyond his control. “We expect the president to be all-powerful and to be able to fix every problem,” said Czerwinski, the presidential historian. “It’s a completely unrealistic expectation and, frankly, dangerous.” President Bill Clinton spent his first two years in office then faced a wave of Republican victories in his first midterm elections. But he later became the first Democratic president to be reelected since Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Czerwinski warned that today’s political polarization could make such a recovery more difficult for Biden. A key question, he said: “Is our party system so rigid that it won’t allow him to come back?”
