Dr. Doug Manuel, senior scientist at The Ottawa Hospital Research Institute and professor at uOttawa’s School of Epidemiology and Public Health. Photo by Tony Caldwell/Postmedia
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Ottawa epidemiologist Dr. Doug Manuel, warns people to prepare for disruption this summer as a fast moving BA.5 Omicron wave takes hold.
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“We’re in a wave and it has the potential to disrupt your summer plans.” He advised people to increase their protection levels and protect those who are vulnerable by wearing masks, keeping distance, avoiding places where this is not possible and making sure their vaccines are up to date. Still, Manuel, a senior scientist at the Ottawa Hospital Research Institute and a member of the Ontario Scientific Advisory Panel, said people’s plans are likely to be disrupted by the rapid spread of the sub-variant that has engulfed Europe and other parts of the world. in recent weeks. The unusual summer wave of COVID-19 also has the potential to cause societal disruption, he said. It already is, actually. The emergency department closures in Perth this week, while symptomatic of much deeper systemic problems with the health system, were caused by the number of nurses leaving with COVID-19. The initial shutdown had to be extended after the virus continued to spread among staff. Cases of COVID-19 among health care workers are on the rise in Ottawa and elsewhere as well.
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Most hospitals in the province struggle in the summer with critical staff shortages. Losing staff due to COVID-19 infections will be a severe blow. The level of the virus detected in the city’s wastewater is already as high as it was during the first Omicron wave in January, when absenteeism due to COVID-19 further strained hospitals, long-term care homes and other businesses and made it difficult to supply some services. And the levels are still rising, Manuel noted. He said the temporary closure of at least three summer camps in Quebec this week due to COVID-19 outbreaks could be a sign of things to come.
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The rapid rise of the summer tide has surprised some. Even Manuel said he thought the summer would be relatively quiet, as it has been in past summers during the pandemic, and that COVID-19 would return in the fall. But the BA.5 variant, which is becoming dominant in Ontario, is so contagious that it has the ability to spread easily, even among people previously immune from vaccinations and disease, at a time when more people are outdoors. The Omicron BA.5 subvariant is almost as infectious as measles, one of the most contagious diseases. Current evidence does not show that it is more severe than earlier variants. In a series of tweets Wednesday, Ontario’s COVID-19 Scientific Advisory Panel also warned of the potential for the surge to be disruptive. He said the increase in hospitalizations would likely be less than in previous waves “but our hospitals are already very stressed.”
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We have probably entered a wave led by the Omicron BA.5 sub-variant.
Key messages: – The increase in hospitalizations will likely be smaller than previous waves, but our hospitals are already very stressed.(1/17)
— COVIDScienceOntario (@COVIDSciOntario) July 6, 2022
The panel also noted that people can be reinfected even if they have been recently infected, and even mild infections can be bothersome and increase the risk of long-term COVID.
The scientific panel also encourages people to wear masks in crowded indoor spaces to reduce the risk.
The surge could test the province’s individual risk assessment approach to the public health pandemic since it lifted most mandates earlier this spring. Some European countries now locked in by the sub-variable are either considering or have decided to bring back mask mandates in some cases to slow the tide.
All Ontario hospitals have maintained mask mandates and the province has continued to make them mandatory in long-term care and nursing homes, but there have been calls to extend it to all health care providers and reduce conflicts.
The scientific advisory board for COVID-19 is also encouraging people to update their vaccines. Just 60 percent of adults in the province have received a third dose. There are growing calls to extend access to fourth installments.
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