First detected in South Africa in April this year, their ability to spread faster than other circulating variants, notably BA.2, has led scientists to predict their prevalence as the dominant variant in the coming months. Canadian researchers looking at the threat of emerging COVID-19 strains predicted that Omicron BA.5 would account for nearly 70 percent of cases by Canada Day. The latest data from the Public Health Service of Canada, dated June 12, shows that BA.5 accounted for 20.4 per cent of COVID-19 cases. Sarah Otto, a University of British Columbia professor and modeling expert at the Rapid Response Network for Coronavirus Variations, predicted a July wave to peak in August. “The last sequence data was in mid-June, but the predictions for July 1 would be: about 13 percent (of cases are) BA.4 and 69 percent BA.5,” Otto said in an interview with The Canadian Press. . “I refer to this as a third Omicron wave because I’ve lost count of all the other waves.” The latest Omicron variants appear to cause fewer hospitalizations and deaths than their older counterparts, which could be attributed to high levels of vaccination and possible herd immunity, according to infectious disease expert Dr. Isaac Bogoch. “I think we need to take a step back and remember that the vast majority of Canadians have been vaccinated. So we have a lot of community-level protection from immunity through vaccination,” Bogoch told CTV’s Your Morning on Monday. But as cases of subvariants increase, it is difficult to predict whether this trend will continue. “We’re starting to see an increase in, for example, sewage surveillance, the percentage of tests that are positive and in some parts of the country we’re starting to see a small, real increase in the number of people in hospitals,” he said. “Well, it’s the real deal. We have, you know, a summer wave. And, it’s not quite clear how big that wave will be. But we definitely have more cases now than we did a few weeks ago.” There are also growing concerns about whether hospitals can handle an increase in cases, as emergency departments across the country are currently facing unprecedented wait times, with some even facing closures. “The health care system suffered a real collapse during this pandemic and never fully recovered,” Dr. Christopher Lambos, an epidemiologist and cardiologist from Montreal, told CTV News Channel on Monday. “You’ve got staff shortages, you’ve got people who are burned, and you’re starting to see emergency rooms being forced to close on weekends or evenings because of staff shortages. And all this is happening in the context of more and more patients getting sick and more and more patients ending up in the hospital,” he added. “Things are not good.” Lambos says the only way forward is to release a fourth Omicron-specific vaccine dose to all members of the public, which will prevent severe disease and give the country’s hospitals a bit of a reprieve. “I think we’re going to need a booster to get us through the next few months because while we’ve been expecting a wave, the fact that it’s coming so early is kind of skewed,” he said. “The fact that cases are going up now has changed the calculus on that a little bit, and so if cases stay low, maybe you’re better off waiting at that time for a specific Omicron vaccine that might come out in October, maybe November.” Eligibility for fourth doses varies among provinces, although most only offer second boosters to older adults and others deemed to be at higher risk. Bogoch says that while the newer subvariants are much more contagious than other strains, it remains unclear whether they are more dangerous or harmful to human health. The easiest way to stay safe is to stay up-to-date with your COVID-19 vaccinations, Bogoch says, which will reduce your chances of getting sick and potentially eliminate the chances of hospitalization if someone does. Otto noted that BA.4 and BA.5 appear to primarily infect the upper airways – versus the lower lungs – leading to less severe cases on average than the pre-Omicron variants. “My prediction is that cases will increase, hospitalizations will increase, but my current hope is that it won’t be as bad as the BA.2 wave,” Otto said, adding that there is not enough evidence yet to know with certainty. At the rate the BA.5 is being developed, he said the BA.5 is now about five times more common in Canada than the BA.4. “Relatively soon, it will just be the BA.5 wave.” With files from the Canadian Press