The 4th of July weekend is coming up, so we’ll assume the realignment is taking a few days off. We need it. USC and UCLA need it. They need time to buy parks, hire tutors for five-hour plane rides and develop a taste for curds. That’s the lingering effect of two West Coast icons headed to the Big Ten. Now, it’s time to consider the next steps. Notre Dame is a talking point until it decides it isn’t. Its ongoing dance with conference attendance dates back nearly a century. The Pac-12 is already on record as aggressively pursuing expansion. The Big 12 has not revealed a plan, if any. He could stay in the 12 ready to start in 2025, or as industry insiders suggest, pick as many Pac-12 schools as is financially wise and possibly consign the Pac-12 to the dustbin of history. Then there’s the ACC, which as of late looks increasingly vulnerable. If this all sounds ruthless, we should be used to it by now. The shock has to wear off…right? Here is the last of the rearranging trenches….
Nothing happens until Notre Dame decides
Pac-12 presidents and athletic directors met by phone Friday, but does the Pac-12 have any power? Until Notre Dame decides on its future, it probably doesn’t exist. Sources told CBS Sports that the Big Ten is done “for now” until the Fighting Irish determine if they want to try and join the conference. To entice Notre Dame to move to the Big Ten, one source suggested Stanford could be invited as a sort of “rival” partner. The two schools have met 24 times in the past 25 years with the streak interrupted only by the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. In that scenario, Notre Dame would have at least five traditional rivals (Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Stanford, USC) as Big Ten partners. With an attractive conference schedule plus three annual non-conference games, the Irish could easily continue their “Shamrock Streak” of individual games across the country. The Big Ten could stop there at 18 or go further, depending on the SEC’s intentions. There is a growing sense that some combination of Clemson, Florida State and Miami could migrate to the SEC. This assumes that any of the three will bring pro rata (equal value) to the teams already in the league. That’s $80-100 million a year in media rights fees. Breach of the ACC concession may require a substantial eight-figure exit fee, provided the contract is not successfully challenged in court. However, such a penalty could be funded over a period of years while the new schools reap an annual windfall. Does this make the Big Ten take a hard look at the likes of North Carolina and Virginia? Both were on then-commissioner Jim Delany’s radar years ago before the league finally added Maryland and Rutgers. With or without Notre Dame, one industry source doubted there was value for the Big Ten to invite Oregon and/or Washington. This source went so far as to call the two schools “tweeners,” not big enough to justify the $80-100 million annual media rights fees, but clearly better than other Pac-12 schools. Consider Oregon and Washington more attractive to the Big 12 if the Pac-12 doesn’t stick together. Speaking of which…
Look down
Regardless of Notre Dame’s decision, the next step in realignment could be a Big 12 or Pac-12 raid from the other conference. An industry source said the Pac-12 (minus USC and UCLA) and Big 12 (minus Texas and Oklahoma) compared to the “Mountain West or AAC-plus.” Attempting to poach teams from the other league is the obvious answer to improving those tags and the royalty fees that come with them. A raid might not change the economic math much, but it would mean survival for one conference and possible dissolution of the other. One industry source described the Big 12’s picks as if they were realignment buffet style.
Take Arizona schools (add the Phoenix market) Take Arizona and Mountain Schools (Colorado and Utah) Attempt a near-full merger with the Pac-12 by adding the Arizona schools, the Mountain schools, Oregon and Washington
The Big 12 must act quickly. On the West Coast, a source said there have been a number of calls between Pac-12 administrators with issues of loyalty and obsession with each other … but nothing like a “blood oath.” Why should it exist with everyone looking out for their own interests? “You can’t trust anybody,” one Pac-12 source said of the big-time college football climate. “It is done.”
The option of mutual destruction
There is one option that would ensure the joint extinction of both conferences, but would ensure stability for the survivors: have the top schools of the Big 12 and Pac-12 agree that forming a new conference is in their best interest. It could look something like this: There is something good if Utah and BYU could rejoin a conference. Pac-12 schools gain access to Texas and expand their reach into the Central Time Zone. The Big 12 schools gain access to California while adding the Phoenix, Denver and Seattle media markets. This hybrid conference might look better than anything that could form a league by taking a few teams from each other. And if the idea is to get as close to SEC and Big Ten revenue as possible, it might be the best lineup. Of course, it would also mean the following programs are left out in the cold: Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oregon State, Washington State, West Virginia.
The Power Two
As reported Thursday, the combined 32 teams in the Big Ten and SEC could mount a credible playoff run on their own when the final (for now) configurations are both settled in 2025. Media insiders who recently spoke with CBS Sports added some depth that suggests the idea has not only been considered but is perhaps a big reason the Big Ten made its bold move.
Take the top four finishers from each conference and put them into an eight-team field. The quarterfinals and semifinals are played in bowl games (as suggested in last year’s 12-team playoff bracket).
Using the first eight years of the CFP as a benchmark, only five teams that advanced to the field would not have a chance to return: Cincinnati, Clemson, Florida State, Notre Dame and Washington. If Clemson and FSU were to join the SEC — and if Notre Dame were to join the Big Ten — only Cincinnati and Washington would be the outliers. Would there even be much pushback?
