Since the partygate scandal emerged over anti-lockdown rallies in Downing Street late last year, several senior members of Johnson’s cabinet have been preparing for a future contest, attracting MPs for drinks, dinners and meetings for coffee. As the prime minister teeters on the brink of being forced out of Downing Street, six main contenders are expected to launch bids to succeed him as Tory leader. Many others are also expected to run, possibly to secure a senior position in the next government.
Liz Truss
Bookmakers odds: 15/2 ConservativeHome approval ratings +49. The foreign secretary has been open about her leadership ambitions since becoming international trade secretary in 2019. At Johnson’s time of greatest risk, she was on a handy trip to Indonesia. The 46-year-old MP for South West Norfolk arrived in parliament in 2010 and quickly climbed the cabinet ladder under David Cameron. He has held a wide range of cabinet roles, including environment and justice secretary. Although she supported Remain in the 2016 referendum, Truss has become one of Brexit’s staunchest defenders, undergoing a turnaround that many Leave MPs attribute to her leadership ambitions. He is one of the favorites in the influential leadership ranking list run by ConservativeHome, the party’s popular grassroots website. Truss, who named one of her daughters Liberty, tried to replicate the style of former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Her leadership will focus on libertarian ideals, or “Thatcherism on steroids”, as one Tory official described it.
Nadhim Zahawi
Bookmakers odds: 23/2 ConservativeHome approval rating: +56 Until his promotion to chancellor, Zahawi was seen as an outside bet to be the next prime minister. An MP who joined the cabinet less than a year ago, he had limited front-line political experience. That changed when he replaced Sunak on Tuesday afternoon. The 55-year-old Stratford-on-Avon MP had a rapid rise under Johnson’s prime ministership, first as vaccines minister during the coronavirus pandemic and then as education secretary. His decision to support Johnson’s government at the moment of greatest danger may have been driven by loyalty to the prime minister, but also by ambition. But many in the party believe he has damaged his chances by joining “a sinking ship” in the words of one MP. If Johnson steps down, Zahawi is likely to be one of the first candidates to declare his intention to succeed him, with one of the most prepared leadership teams of other potential contenders. An ally said: “Nadhim has been working hard in the parliamentary party for quite some time. No one has any doubt that he will be nominated and I think there is a good chance that he will win.
Rishi Sunak
Bookmakers odds: 7/1 ConservativeHome approval rating: 14.9 Until revelations earlier this year that Sunak’s wife had tax status and held a US green card while a minister, the former chancellor was the favorite to succeed Johnson – thanks in part to his steady performance during the coronavirus pandemic . Sunak’s shock resignation on Tuesday night confirmed the 42-year-old as one of the most prominent candidates to replace Johnson. But the MP for Richmond, Yorkshire, is likely to be challenged over his financial record, which has been unpopular with Tory MPs and party members. Some senior Tories have questioned whether Mr Sunack will stand for the leadership, suggesting he may instead opt to leave politics. In his resignation letter to Johnson, he wrote: “I recognize that this may be my last ministerial work.” If Sunak does stand, his position will likely focus on fiscal responsibility, cutting taxes and shrinking the state.
Sajid Javid
Bookmakers odds: 8/1. ConservativeHome approval ratings +43 “Enough is enough,” the former health secretary told the House of Commons on Wednesday. It was Javid who launched the final push that is likely to end Johnson’s prime ministerial career with a damning resignation letter. The 52-year-old Bromsgrove MP has stood for the party leadership twice before: in 2016 after the Brexit referendum and again in 2019, when he was ruled out of the contest after coming fourth in the MPs’ vote. Javid’s role as Johnson’s chief political assassin will help his standing among the Tories, but Johnson’s loyalists are unlikely to forget the betrayal. Allies of Javid said he has not decided whether to run again. One said that in his resignation speech “it was clear that he wants to reshape the party for the future and get it back on track. Saj may eventually roll behind someone else.”
Penny Mordant
Bookmakers odds: 9/2 ConservativeHome Approval Ratings: N/A The betting favorite to succeed Johnson, the trade secretary has long been a staunch critic of the prime minister. In last month’s confidence vote, Mordaunt refused to say whether she supported Johnson, but said she “didn’t choose that prime minister”. As a junior non-cabinet minister, Mordaunt does not feature in ConservativeHome’s leadership rankings. But her campaign team has been in labor since the publication of her book, Greater, last May. The 49-year-old former Royal Navy reservist first entered parliament in 2010 as MP for Portsmouth North. He later joined Theresa May’s cabinet, serving as Secretary of State for International Development and Defence. Mordaunt was a key supporter of Brexit in the 2016 referendum, but is also a member of the One Nation parliamentary group representing Liberal Conservative MPs. A Mordaunt ally said her leadership would seek to unite different wings of the Tory party. “He will talk about being pro-Brexit, supporting global Britain and social liberalism,” the MP said.
Tom Tugendhat
Bookmakers odds: 12/1 ConservativeHome Approval Ratings: N/A The chairman of the foreign affairs select committee has made no secret of his dislike of Johnson and his desire to be the next prime minister. Since Johnson’s tumultuous tenure as foreign secretary, Tugendhat has been one of the prime minister’s fiercest critics. The 49-year-old MP for Tonbridge and Malling served in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars before entering parliament in 2010. He became chairman of the foreign affairs select committee in 2017 and used it as a platform to become one of the Conservative party’s most prominent MPs. Tugendhat does not appear in ConservativeHome’s rankings but is 12/1 odds to succeed Johnson according to the bookmakers. His leadership is expected to focus on the ideological and moral renewal of the party. One Tugendhat-aligned MP said: “Tom will do well in this, but . . . His best hope is to hang on and get a good cabinet job. That or he becomes the next leader of the opposition.”
Other contenders
Several other prominent Tories are considering leadership bids, but their chances are more limited. Jeremy Hunt The former health secretary will support the leadership, but many MPs on the right of the party are skeptical of Hunt’s record and delivery style. One MP described Hunt as “Teresa [May] with trousers”, a reference to the former prime minister. Ben Wallace The defense secretary has won plaudits for his handling of the Ukraine war but remains untested in other areas of policy. Considered a steady pair of hands within the party, Wallace has not built as extensive a campaign team as other candidates. “I’m still not sure Ben will run,” said one ally. Michael Gove The equalization secretary told Johnson early on Wednesday that he would have to step down and could launch a third bid for the leadership, possibly focusing on implementing his equalization agenda to tackle regional inequality. But his allies insist he will not run again.
