Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah have been specifically mentioned as teams the Big 12 is targeting, sources tell CBS Sports. There is also the possibility of adding Oregon and Washington to make the Big 12 an 18-team league, the largest in the FBS. A merger of the Big 12 and Pac-12, in some form, is also a possibility. “Everything is on the table,” a Big 12 source said. There’s no question the Big 12 needs to be aggressive in expansion, another conference source said. Despite the Big 12’s efforts, the Pac-12 released a statement Monday saying it will immediately begin negotiations for its next television contract, intending to move forward with at least its 10 remaining members. There’s a chance more could be added to the mix, according to a Pac-12 source. The Pac-12’s current deal expires in 2024 However, a source familiar with the negotiations said that doesn’t necessarily mean the Pac-12 will be all together “in three months.” The Pac-12 is expected to enter an exclusive 30-day negotiating window with current rights holders Fox and ESPN before receiving offers from other bidders. Before the Pac-12’s announcement Monday, an industry source suggested the Big 12 should expand quickly with Pac-12 teams and then go to market early with rights holders to get ahead of the Pac-12. The Pac-12’s deal with Fox and ESPN expires in 2024. The Big 12’s deal with the same networks expires in 2025. “All those things have been discussed,” a Big 12 source said. Adding at least those four schools would expand the Big 12 further into the Mountain Time Zone, creating “travel partners” for incoming member BYU, while also adding an opponent for the Cougars in the Utes. The Arizona schools are two hours apart and feature Phoenix as a major acquisition for the conference. What the Big 12 can’t afford to do, according to multiple industry sources, is stand pat. There’s still the question of who even has leverage in adding teams between the Pac-12 and the Big 12. An industry source gave what was called a slight tilt to the Big 12 being able to grab teams from the other conference. The difference in profit value between the Big 12 and the Pac-12 would be “negligible” after this round of realignment, but by extension, the Big 12 would at least boost itself while undercutting the Pac-12. Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah carry an annual average value (AAV) of at least the 12 members of the Big 12 that will remain in the league once Texas and Oklahoma leave in 2025. That’s one reason why Big 12 expansion would work in this case, since the conference wouldn’t be aiming to shrink chunks of media rights. It is not yet known if the addition of Oregon and Washington is treated the same way by the Big 12. Of course, all of this assumes that Fox, a half-partner with ESPN in both conferences, is even interested in making a deal with one or both of the reconstituted leagues. If not, ESPN could become the primary beneficiary if interested. There is a relationship that needs to be mended with the Big 12 after outgoing commissioner Bob Bowlsby alleged a conspiracy involving ESPN, the SEC and the American last summer. New commissioner Brett Yormark starts Aug. 1. The Pac-12’s projected AAV dropped significantly from $500 million per year (about $42 million per school) to $300 million ($30 million) for the remaining 10 teams after the league lost USC and UCLA, according to the San Jose Mercury News. Navigate, a sports and entertainment consulting group, said in March that members of a 12-team Big 12 would earn $52 million through 2029. Other industry insiders disputed that figure. Notre Dame’s “preference” is to remain independent, according to Sports Illustrated. The prospect of making $80 million to $100 million in the Big Ten could influence that attitude, but Notre Dame has left money on the table before — for decades, in fact. The Fighting Irish have historically valued their programming independence and unique marketing strength. If Notre Dame remains independent, the focus is clearly on the Big 12 and the Pac-12 in alignment. The consolidation of money and power at the top among the 32 programs in the SEC and Big Ten has sent shock waves throughout college sports. What will a playoff look like in 2026 when a unanimous vote is no longer required to approve an updated structure? Will there even be a playoff? It is imperative that 98 schools below the SEC and Big Ten try to get as close to the superconferences as possible. ACC is bound by its agreement until 2036, assuming no layoffs. For the Big 12, the flexibility to increase its profitability, media purchases and brand name are compelling enough reasons to consider expansion.
