MADRID – President Joe Biden has issued a harsh warning to Americans following the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops in February: Taking a stand against President Vladimir Putin could hurt the US economy. “I will not pretend this will be painless,” he said in a statement in the White House East Room. However, few in Biden’s government imagined how much pain in domestic politics and the economy could be caused by the war in eastern Ukraine: growing anger over $ 5 a gallon of gasoline, deeper frustration over rising food and rental costs and growing opposition to spending billions of dollars on an endless foreign conflict. Subscribe to The Morning Newsletter from the New York Times At this week’s 7-nation summit in Europe, Biden and his allies put forward the idea that they should stand united against Russia, while drawing new and stronger lines against what they see as predatory economic practices. of China. But the rallies also highlighted the deep pressures of the war on Western leaders and consumers over the energy costs that have soared as a result of the severe sanctions imposed on Russia, which could rise even higher. Despite steps taken by Biden and his allies to counter Russian aggression – including a fast-track path to NATO membership for Finland and Sweden and a plan to curb the price of Russian oil exports – leaders have failed to describe the final game of the long war of friction. Biden is already feeling political heat from his swift response to the invasion of Ukraine. His push to ban Russian oil imports shortly after the invasion was followed by global price spikes, which have shaken consumer confidence and threatened to keep Democrats in Congress in the next midterm elections. Republicans have tried to blame the president’s policies on energy and climate, but the West’s invasion and response to it are the reasons for the wave. If the war continues and Biden fails in his plan to keep the flow of Russian oil at a severe discount, some analysts say oil prices could skyrocket to $ 200 a barrel, which could mean $ 7 a gallon. or more – prices that, if maintained, would seriously hurt Biden’s re-election hopes. The story goes on An escalating conflict would also require the United States and its allies to find additional money for military and other assistance to Ukraine, in addition to the $ 40 billion already approved by Congress this year. At the moment, it is just a small group of opponents disputing the spending, but this resentment could spread, giving a line of attack to former President Donald Trump, who is signaling plans for a rematch with Biden in 2024. These currents make the next several months critical for Biden and his bold international coalition – a fact that government officials have begun to acknowledge. Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told reporters on the sidelines of the G-7 summit in the German Alps that the Allies would try to help Ukraine’s armed forces gain as much leverage as possible before the winter war. because “a conflict is not in the interest of the Ukrainian people, for obvious reasons.” Sullivan and Finance Minister Janet Yellen said this week that officials would move quickly to negotiate and implement the myriad unresolved details of the proposed Russian oil export price ceiling, promising relief for drivers. if a position is placed. But many economists and energy experts doubt that a ceiling that has never been tested on a global scale like this could be effectively combined soon. In particular, some administrators admit that it can last until late fall or longer. European leaders have fought more publicly this week with the pain of war for their citizens, especially the availability and price of energy. But in a few limited speeches in Germany and Spain, Biden expressed only a steely determination to prevent Putin’s attacks. Asked at a news conference at the end of a NATO summit in Spain how long American drivers could wait to continue paying higher petrol prices, Biden was blunt. “As long as it takes,” he said, “so Russia can not really defeat Ukraine and move beyond Ukraine.” Biden also said he expected his oil cap design to help consumers. “We believe it can be done,” he said. “It will reduce the price of oil and it will reduce the price of gasoline as well.” Data released by the Commerce Department on Thursday showed that war-affected prices, such as food and energy, continued to rise in May, while other rates rose flat. Biden blamed Putin. “The reason for the rise in gasoline prices is because of Russia,” he told a news conference. At least some temporary relief could be on the way for American motorists. The national average price has fallen slightly in recent weeks and future gasoline contracts have fallen much more significantly, suggesting that service stations may cut prices in July. However, many analysts say prices are likely to soar again later this year as Europe bans Russian oil imports into force unless Biden’s plan for higher prices succeeds. The president’s focus this week on war, energy inflation and emerging threats from China has ruled out many of the issues that dominated his 2020 campaign – and the ongoing controversy that is driving his party back to homeland. He and his fellow leaders rarely reported the COVID-19 pandemic. Biden’s extensive — and stalled — plans for new social programs were sidelined. Even climate change has for the most part been relegated to high promises in public forums rather than concrete promises of action. The price cap proposal is merely Biden’s most recent example of capturing solutions to the consumer pain caused by the war. Senior officials have approached Venezuela – a Russian ally that has been under US sanctions for years – over the oil crisis. The government has also sought help from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to transport grain from Ukraine to help reduce food shortages. And next month, Biden will travel to Saudi Arabia and meet in person with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, after repeatedly calling on the Saudis and other major oil producers to increase production. Biden was asked on Thursday whether he would personally push the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia to increase, despite the fact that he once condemned the prince as a “pariah” for the brutal assassination of Jamal Kasogi, a Saudi dissident, in 2018. will not. Nevertheless, the urgent need to respond to the ripple effects of war led Biden to think at least what would once have been unthinkable. This underscores the reality for the president and his allies: There are few solutions to the current situation that have no downsides. © 2022 The New York Times Company
