To address this potential crisis, the rest of Europe is working on protocols to share the pain of any shutdown of Russian gas and minimize the costs to economies and societies across the continent. However, according to a report in the Financial Times on Wednesday, the United Kingdom plans to withdraw from such solidarity. If Putin shuts off gas to Europe, the report says, the United Kingdom plans to follow suit by shutting down its own gas pipelines to other countries. There are two such pipelines between Britain and mainland Europe. The Financial Times reports that the first thing the UK will do in the event of a severe gas shortage is to raise the drawbridge by closing the pipelines. If this report is true, it would be another case of the UK planning to violate or set aside international law and agreements. So far, draft legislation to violate the Northern Ireland Protocol and repeal the European Convention on Human Rights is already undermining formal international commitments. But to date the UK has not yet repealed the contracts under UK law. A significant part of the gas flowing in the UK comes from a Norwegian field not connected to Norway: the only way out is through the UK. The Norwegian company is currently selling the gas to Irish and other EU buyers, supplying them through pipelines in the UK. However, if the UK Government closes these pipelines forward, the UK would prevent the owner of this gas from supplying its customers outside the UK. Such an action by the UK would increase the availability of gas to its own consumers, thus allowing lower prices than elsewhere in Europe where supplies would become less scarce. At a time of high inflation in the UK, there is a clear temptation to do so. However, by arming gas supplies to the detriment of Britain’s neighbors, Johnson will imitate Putin. The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson speaks with Russian President Vladimir Putin during the International Conference on Libya in Berlin in January 2020. Photo: Alexei Nikolsky / EPA / Sputnik / Kremlin If the UK closed the three pipelines between Ireland and Scotland, that would have profound consequences for us. The UK may choose to continue to supply Northern Ireland with gas. If it did, we could possibly benefit to some extent through the North-South gas pipeline. Another scenario could see the UK exclude the island of Ireland, while blocking supplies to mainland Europe. This could cause our relative gas prices to fall below those of continental Europe. Ireland receives 30 per cent of its gas supplies from Corrib and the rest comes from the United Kingdom. If Ireland lost 70 per cent of its gas from Britain, the economic and social consequences would be truly dire. The impact would be far greater than the threat to Europe from a loss of Russian gas. At most, Europe gets 40 percent of its gas from Russia – 70 percent of our gas comes from the United Kingdom. While a very limited supply of gas can allow our electricity system to continue to operate, households and companies that use gas will suffer greatly. If household gas supplies fell to almost zero during the winter, there would be a serious risk of excessive deaths from hypothermia. The loss of gas, on which our food processing industry is based, could force the closure. The Irish Government can do nothing this year to offset the risk of losing access to gas from the UK, other than relying on the goodwill of our closest neighbors. An important factor is that action is currently a delegated responsibility under the control of the governments of Scotland and Northern Ireland. The Scottish Government may be less happy than London for the reduction of supplies from Scotland to Ireland. They may be more determined to ensure the continued enforcement of trade agreements under UK law that support our gas supply. Of course, the Government of London could deal with this by removing these decentralized powers from the Government of Scotland. However, they may be reluctant to open a new front in the constitutional war with Scotland. The Northern Ireland Utility Authority regulates the pipeline between Northern Ireland and Scotland and, together with the Utilities Commission, the North-South pipeline. On our common island, this Northern Ireland body and executive, whenever formed, may be more receptive to keeping these vital ties open.
