Leader after leader in the two summits – including Biden – pledged to support Ukraine “as much as necessary”, but few were willing to offer a realistic timetable for ending the conflict. This contributed to a premonition that clouded the many announcements, some very important, to the Group of 7 in the Bavarian Alps and later to the NATO summit in Madrid. Leaders have openly warned of growing fatigue and indifference to war as their populations evacuate.
The alliance remains united – for the time being
“Unity” was the buzzword this week as leaders tried to prove they were in line as the war in Ukraine entered its fifth month. And despite fears of a fracture, NATO leaders left Madrid with a renewed sense of purpose after years of hesitation over how to approach Russia. The alliance is ready to grow after the official invitation of Finland and Sweden to join. The way was open for both countries, each with a long history of military alignment, as Turkey withdrew its objections, giving this summit a somewhat unexpected boost as it began. The leaders made significant improvements to the NATO force post along its eastern extremity, increasing the number of high-alert troops by sevenfold. Biden announced new rotations of US troops in the Baltic and Romania, new ships in Spain and planes in the United Kingdom, and, for the first time, a permanent military base in Poland. After dancing around the issue for years, NATO made it clear in its updated mission statement that Russia is now the “most important threat to Allied security.” And he cited China for the first time, saying the budding partnership between Moscow and Beijing “runs counter to our values.” Overall, the achievements are tantamount to a fundamental change for the alliance, which has struggled for years to determine the best way to approach Russia. President Vladimir Putin, fearing the expansion of the alliance to the east, now faces a much more united collective. “He wanted less NATO,” Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said this week. “Now President Putin is getting more NATO on its borders.”
Zelensky urges Allied leaders to help him turn the tide
Despite the determination, it is unclear whether any of the steps taken to respond to the war in Ukraine at this week’s meetings in Europe – new sanctions, more military aid and a revitalized NATO – can change the dynamics of the battlefield. which favors Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged NATO leaders to help him regain the initiative during a summit speech on Wednesday, calling for more modern artillery and continued support to fight the Russians. “The war must not continue. To break the advantage of Russian artillery, we need much more than these modern systems, modern artillery,” Zelensky said. Biden told a news conference that he was preparing to unveil $ 800 million in new security assistance, including the same model of missile defense system used to protect Washington’s airspace. Other countries have made similar commitments. But the weapons are still lagging behind what Zelensky has called for, and at the moment it seems unlikely that they will radically change the course of the war. Instead, leaders hope Russia will run out of power and artillery and be hampered by Western sanctions on supplies.
Western leaders have not yet set a final game in Ukraine
Biden gave little indication in his press conference that he believed the conflict would end soon. Instead, he suggested that Americans should enjoy high gas prices for at least a little longer. “As long as it takes, Russia can not, in fact, defeat Ukraine and go beyond Ukraine,” he said. He was repeating a term used throughout this week’s summit. “Ukraine can count on us for as long as it takes,” Stoltenberg told reporters in Madrid. “We will continue to provide financial, humanitarian and military support to Ukraine for as long as it takes,” the G7 leaders said in a joint statement. But how long it takes remains unknown and is a point of contention for Western leaders. Some are pushing for a decisive victory on the battlefield. Others believe that stronger efforts should be made to mediate a settlement, especially in the midst of economic implications at home. “The consensus is that the war in Ukraine will continue for an extended period of time,” US National Intelligence Director Avril Haynes told a conference on Wednesday, offering a grim assessment in the short term of what has turned into a tough conflict.
High home prices remain the focus during a trip abroad
At the top of the leaders’ list this week was finding a way to mitigate the high cost of gas that is frustrating their people and giving them political headaches. “When we agreed that we would respond, we recognized that it would have some cost to our people, the imposition of sanctions on Russia,” Biden said during a meeting with the Spanish king this week. However, the scale of the price hikes surprised many in Biden’s group and left them in a precarious position months before the midterm elections. Finding a way out of a difficult situation has proved difficult. Biden’s efforts so far – to free oil barrels from reserves, punish oil companies and propose a gas tax cut – have made little progress. He has succeeded in persuading fellow G7 leaders to agree to try to reduce the price of Russian oil, an idea backed by his finance minister, Janet Yellen. But how and when this can be achieved was an unanswered question until the summit was over. He suggested during his press conference that the West could use its leverage by not providing insurance for the ships carrying the goods. “We will not provide them with insurance, so they would have great difficulty gaining customers,” he said. He hinted that one of his goals when traveling abroad in the Middle East would be to persuade Gulf states to increase production – although he refused to ask his hosts in Saudi Arabia to start pumping more. oil. “I have told them that I thought they should increase oil production in general, not particularly in Saudi Arabia,” he said.
Biden’s problems at home are magnified by his successes abroad
American presidents always have more unilateral scope for their foreign policy priorities than for their domestic agenda, which usually requires congressional cooperation. For Biden, the phenomenon appears magnified. His muscular approach to arming Ukraine and uniting the West behind Russian sanctions bears little resemblance to his struggles to advance domestic politics. Some Democrats have complained privately that Biden does not seem willing to fight as hard for his domestic priorities as restoring abortion and voting rights to Ukraine. In a way, the disproportionate level of success at home and abroad is exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. Biden’s goals abroad – to punish Russia – make him more difficult at home, as higher gas prices erode his political capital. He is not the only leader facing serious political winds. The British Prime Minister, the French President and the German Chancellor are each facing the dissatisfaction of the voters at home. However, Biden seems particularly tormented by a sour national mood that seems unable to improve, even by a Democratic Party that has quietly begun to question its leadership. As he returns to Washington on Thursday, he will find that the challenges he left behind last week have gone nowhere.
